光大期货软商品日报-20251030

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation. On Wednesday, ICE US cotton rose 1.38% to 65.95 cents/pound, and CF601 rose 0.41% to 13,620 yuan/ton. The current supply peak has passed, and supply pressure will gradually ease. The domestic cotton supply - demand pattern is not very loose this year. Macro - level positive news, such as the confirmed meeting between Chinese and US leaders in South Korea during the APEC meeting, gives hope for tariff policy adjustment. The bottom of Zhengzhou cotton has support, and upward drive depends on whether there will be unexpected progress during the APEC meeting [1]. - Sugar is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market focuses on the northern hemisphere's crushing progress, and the concern about Indian exports is mainly emotional. Raw sugar has limited rebound under the background of increased production in the northern hemisphere and expected continued increase in Brazil's 26/27 sugar season. The news of restricted imports of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is still fermenting, and the spot trading is average. The futures market faces risks in further rebound, so it should be treated as a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the news from the Chengdu Sugar Conference [1]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section Research Views - Cotton: ICE US cotton and CF601 rose on Wednesday. The main contract's open interest decreased by 596 lots to 578,500 lots. The 3128B cotton spot price index rose by 10 yuan/ton. The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP as expected, but Powell's hawkish remarks made the US dollar index strong. The confirmed meeting between Chinese and US leaders supports the US cotton price. The domestic Zhengzhou cotton price has rebounded, and future macro and fundamental factors are likely to improve [1]. - Sugar: Spot sugar prices in different regions have different adjustments. The market focuses on the northern hemisphere's crushing progress. Raw sugar has limited rebound due to expected increased production. The news of restricted imports of syrup and pre - mixed powder in China is fermenting, and the spot trading is average. The futures market is in a stalemate and should be treated as a wide - range oscillation [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread is - 5 with no change, the main contract basis is 1220 yuan/ton with a decrease of 45 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang spot price is 14,650 yuan/ton with a decrease of 1 yuan/ton, and the national spot price is 14,840 yuan/ton with an increase of 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread is 65 yuan/ton with an increase of 13 yuan/ton, the main contract basis is 256 yuan/ton with a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The Nanning and Liuzhou spot prices are both 5,750 yuan/ton with no change [2]. Market Information - Cotton: On October 29, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 17 to 2,471, and the number of effective forecasts was 882. The cotton arrival prices in different domestic regions are as follows: Xinjiang 14,650 yuan/ton, Henan 14,871 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,884 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,956 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 51.2, unchanged from the previous day; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.2, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 51.9, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.9, up 0.1 [3]. - Sugar: On October 29, the Nanning and Liuzhou spot sugar prices were both 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 70 to 7,625, and the number of effective forecasts was 586 [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including the closing price, basis, 1 - 5 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and effective forecasts of cotton and sugar, as well as the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B. The data sources are Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [6][9][11][14][17]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin is the director of the resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on the sugar industry. He has won many industry - related awards [19]. - Zhang Linglu is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass. She has also won many industry - related awards [20]. - Sun Chengzhen is a resource product analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy. He won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile product senior analyst title in 2024 [21].