化工日报：关注周四反内卷座谈会及宏观变动-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Views - The PTA industry is facing over - capacity and low processing fees, but the situation may gradually reverse in 2026 as new PTA device investment plans are scarce while polyester has 300 - 400 million tons of investment plans [1]. - Crude oil prices have rebounded recently due to sanctions and other factors, but the upward momentum is insufficient as the supply - surplus contradiction has emerged and the market has priced in the impact of sanctions [2]. - PX has limited room for PXN rebound due to high - load operation, few maintenance plans in the fourth quarter, and capacity expansion of some devices [2]. - PTA has low processing fees due to new device investment, with less inventory accumulation pressure in the near term but increasing pressure after November [2]. - In terms of demand, polyester's domestic sales orders have improved, and inventory has decreased, but external demand depends on Sino - US tariff negotiations [3]. - For PF, demand has slightly improved, inventory has decreased, and processing fees are expected to be oscillatingly strong [4]. - For PR, the fundamentals have little change, and the spot processing fees are expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report shows charts of TA and PX's main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA's East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [9][10][12]. Upstream Profits and Spreads - It includes charts of PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korea's xylene isomerization profit, and South Korea's STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21]. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - There are charts of toluene's US - Asia spread, toluene's South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profit [26][28]. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - It presents charts of China, South Korea, and Taiwan's PTA loads, as well as China and Asia's PX loads [29][32][34]. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report shows charts of PTA's weekly social inventory, PX's monthly social inventory, PTA's total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, and various warehouse receipt inventories [38][41][42]. Downstream Polyester Load - It includes charts of filament and short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, various filament factory inventory days, and the operating rates of weaving, texturing, and printing and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [50][52][62]. PF Detailed Data - There are charts of polyester staple fiber load, factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical and equity inventories, and related production and processing data [74][75][81]. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It shows charts of polyester bottle - chip load, factory bottle - chip inventory days, spot and export processing fees, export profit, and other related data [87][89][95].