李子园（605337）：三季报点评：季度业绩继续承压，静待调整效果

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][10]. Core Views - The company's short-term performance continues to be under pressure, with distributors still in an adjustment phase. However, the current dividend payout ratio is favorable, and the report anticipates a recovery in the future [2][10]. - The report has revised the EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 0.52, 0.57, and 0.62 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 0.61, 0.66, and 0.70 yuan. The target price is set at 13.00 yuan per share, based on a 25x PE ratio for 2025E [10][12]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 1,412 million yuan, with a slight increase of 0.6% from the previous year. However, a decline of 8.0% is expected in 2025 [3][11]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted at 237 million yuan for 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2%. The net profit is expected to decline to 204 million yuan in 2025, a decrease of 9.1% [3][11]. - The company’s net asset return rate is projected to be 13.9% in 2023, decreasing to 11.8% by 2025 [3][11]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company's revenue decreased by 8.51% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company fell by 5.93% [10]. - In Q3 alone, revenue declined by 8.46% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 14.71%, down 1.44 percentage points from the previous year [10]. Product and Channel Performance - The revenue from dairy beverages saw a significant decline of 13.22% to 88.7 million yuan in the first three quarters. Conversely, other products experienced rapid growth, increasing by 123.11% to 81.736 million yuan, driven by new products like vitamin water [10]. - The distribution channel revenue decreased by 10.74% to 90.1 million yuan, while direct sales channels grew by 37.08% to 68.059 million yuan, attributed to the rapid growth of e-commerce [10]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.40 yuan per 10 shares for the first half of 2025, resulting in a total payout of 91.958 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 95.67% [10].