贵州茅台（600519）：茅台酒稳健，Q3 业绩降速

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Trading Buy" with a target price of 1580 CNY [1][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 130.9 billion CNY for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit of 64.63 billion CNY, also up by 6.2% year-on-year [6][11]. - The performance in Q3 showed stable revenue of 39.8 billion CNY, with net profit remaining flat at 19.22 billion CNY compared to the previous year [6][11]. - The report indicates a downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025-2027, with expected net profits of 91.37 billion CNY, 98.57 billion CNY, and 106.23 billion CNY respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 6%, 7.9%, and 7.8% [11]. Company Overview - The company operates in the food and beverage industry, specifically focusing on liquor products, with Moutai liquor accounting for 86.1% of its product mix and series liquor making up 13.9% [2][11]. - As of October 29, 2025, the company's A-share price was 1431.90 CNY, with a market capitalization of 179.31 billion CNY [2]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters, Moutai liquor generated 110.5 billion CNY in revenue, a 9.3% increase year-on-year, while series liquor revenue decreased by 7.8% to 17.88 billion CNY [11]. - The gross margin and expense ratios remained stable, with a Q3 expense ratio decrease of approximately 1 percentage point to 7.33% due to cost control and marketing optimization [11]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) for the forecasted years are projected to be 72.74 CNY, 78.46 CNY, and 84.56 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][11]. Market Position - The company has a significant institutional investor presence, with 7.1% of A-shares held by funds and 70.7% by general corporations [3]. - The stock price has shown fluctuations, with a 12-month high of 1626.12 CNY and a low of 1373 CNY [2].