XREC(SZ:000598) Xinda Securities·2025-10-30 07:35Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 6.548 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.39%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.764 billion yuan, up 8.49% year-on-year [2] - The third quarter alone saw a revenue of 2.356 billion yuan, a 6.85% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 789 million yuan, reflecting a 13.09% growth [2] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 9.795 billion yuan, 11.180 billion yuan, and 11.760 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits projected at 2.169 billion yuan, 2.488 billion yuan, and 2.613 billion yuan for the same years [4] Financial Performance - The company has shown significant improvement in cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 2.399 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 11.74% year-on-year. The cash received from sales and services was 6.326 billion yuan, up 8.35% [5] - The accounts receivable balance decreased to 3.495 billion yuan by the end of the third quarter, down from 3.584 billion yuan at the end of the second quarter, indicating effective control over receivables [5] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was approximately 47.9%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 27.68%, up 3.8 percentage points [5] Business Stability and Growth Potential - The company has a leading market share of 100% in the water supply and sewage treatment business in Chengdu, ensuring stable cash flow through a user-pay model [5] - The company is actively expanding its water service projects, with over 9 million tons per day in operational, under-construction, and planned projects, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth starting in 2025 [5]