全球科技竞争路线图：胜任者有力，自胜者强

Group 1: Global Technology Competition Scenarios - The global technology competition may unfold in three scenarios: 1) Benchmark scenario: strategic equilibrium is achieved globally, with China maintaining its manufacturing lead but facing challenges in complex technology fields[1] - 2) Optimistic scenario: China becomes the innovation leader, shifting the global innovation production center's geographic location[1] - 3) Pessimistic scenario: China's industrial upgrade progresses slower than expected[1] Group 2: Key Technologies and Innovations - Key technologies include frontier technologies such as AI, semiconductors, quantum computing, and biotechnology, as well as advanced manufacturing and critical infrastructure technologies[1] - In AI, the performance gap between Chinese and American models is narrowing, with the number of significant AI models in the U.S. at 40 compared to China's 15 in 2024[2] - In semiconductors, China's institutional advantages and large-scale market are expected to help local companies overcome technological barriers[2] Group 3: Economic and Policy Implications - The U.S. manufacturing sector is projected to gain 244,000 jobs in 2024 due to reshoring initiatives and foreign direct investment[2] - Risks include policy uncertainty, economic risks from demand weakness and inflation, and supply chain disruptions due to geopolitical factors[3] - The U.S. government is focusing on enhancing supply chain resilience and economic security through increased spending and subsidies[2] Group 4: Biotechnology and Healthcare - In biotechnology, both the U.S. and China show similar overall performance, with the U.S. excelling in gene engineering and vaccine research, while China leads in drug production due to large-scale public investment[2] - In 2023, the U.S. FDA approved 55 new drugs, with 3 from Chinese developers, while China's NMPA approved 87 drugs, including 5 innovative drugs[2]