Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (specifically for bottle chips) is "oscillating and slightly strong" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The supply of bottle chips this week has changed little, downstream factories mainly conduct rigid restocking, and the market is cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips in September decreased month - on - month. Recently, stimulated by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber polyester industry, the price of bottle chips is oscillating and slightly strong, with the reference range of the main contract being 5620 - 5800 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, the PR2601 contract of bottle chips rose 34 yuan to 5744 yuan/ton. The price of East China water - grade bottle chips fell 20 yuan to 5740 yuan/ton, and the price of South China bottle chips fell 20 yuan to 5780 yuan/ton. In terms of positions, long positions decreased by 4168 lots to 51,400 lots, and short positions decreased by 3764 lots to 50,700 lots [1] Important Information - In terms of supply, cost, and profit, the domestic production of polyester bottle chips was 335,100 tons, with a flat week - on - week change. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of polyester bottle chips was 73.3%, also flat week - on - week. The production cost of polyester bottle chips was 5122 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 49 yuan/ton, and the weekly production gross profit of polyester bottle chips was - 67 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 33 yuan/ton [1] - In September 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 467,700 tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons from the previous month. The cumulative export volume in 2025 was 4.8091 million tons [1] - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories declined, and the market was optimistic about the prospects of economic and trade negotiations, leading to a rise in international oil prices. The December contract of NYMEX crude oil futures rose 0.33 dollars to 60.48 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.55%; the December contract of ICE Brent crude oil futures rose 0.52 dollars to 64.92 dollars/barrel, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%. The 2512 contract of China INE crude oil futures fell 7.2 yuan to 459.2 yuan/ton, and rose 5.9 yuan to 465.1 yuan/ton in the night session [1] - The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second consecutive meeting to cut interest rates, in line with market expectations and the fifth rate cut since September 2024 [1] Market Logic - The supply of bottle chips has little change this week, downstream factories mainly conduct rigid restocking, and the market is cautious about the later - stage demand. The export volume of bottle chips in September decreased month - on - month. Recently, stimulated by the news of the anti - involution meeting in the chemical fiber polyester industry, the price of bottle chips is oscillating and slightly strong [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see for now [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示：瓶片-20251030
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-10-30 08:00