Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 08:42Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - For soda ash, supply-side domestic soda ash operating rate and production are decreasing, with some enterprises planning short-term shutdowns for maintenance. Demand-side glass production remains at the bottom, and the photovoltaic glass market is stable but may reduce demand later. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventories are increasing, and supply exceeds demand, suppressing prices. It is recommended to go long on the soda ash main contract at low levels in the short term [2]. - For glass, the "coal-to-gas" project in the Shahe area may potentially reduce short - term supply, and the market has an enhanced expectation of capacity contraction. The real estate industry, the largest downstream demand area, is in a downturn, and the demand for glass is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see for the glass main contract in the short term [2]. 3. Key Points by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price is -24 yuan/ton, glass main contract closing price is 1235 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The price difference between soda ash and glass is 12 yuan/ton. Soda ash main contract positions decreased by 22,468 hands to 1,332,613 hands, and glass main contract positions are 202,209 hands. Soda ash's top 20 net positions decreased by 26,849 to 1,875,547 hands, and glass's top 20 net positions are -64,260 hands. Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts are 8,945 tons, and glass exchange warehouse receipts are -13 tons. Soda ash basis is 402 yuan/ton, a decrease of 70 yuan/ton, and glass basis is 36 yuan/ton. The spread between January and May glass contracts is -43 yuan/ton, and for soda ash contracts is -89 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy - soda ash price decreased by 2 yuan/ton, Central China heavy - soda ash price is 1,189 yuan/ton. East China light - soda ash price has no change, Central China light - soda ash price is 1,250 yuan/ton. Shahe glass large - plate price increased by 4 yuan/ton, Central China glass large - plate price is 1,048 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate increased by 0.01%, and float glass enterprise operating rate is 84.94%. Glass in - production capacity is 16.12 million tons/year, and the number of in - production glass production lines is 226. Soda ash enterprise inventories decreased by 0.97 million tons, and glass enterprise inventories increased by 233.7 million weight boxes to 6,661.3 million weight boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The cumulative value of real estate new construction area is 5,597.99 million square meters, and the cumulative value of real estate completion area is 45,399 million square meters, an increase of 3,435.46 million square meters compared to 31,129 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - China and the US held a meeting in Busan, South Korea, and agreed to strengthen cooperation in economic and trade fields. They reached consensus on issues such as fentanyl anti - drug cooperation, expanding agricultural product trade, and handling individual cases of relevant enterprises. The US made positive commitments in investment and other fields, and China will properly handle the TikTok - related issue with the US [2].