银河期货花生日报-20251030

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Peanut Daily Report [1] - Date: October 30, 2025 [1] - Researcher: Liu Dayong [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Peanut spot prices are expected to be relatively stable in the short - term, with supply increasing and downstream demand remaining weak [4][8] - Peanut futures will continue to oscillate at the bottom, and the new - season peanut production is expected to be higher than last year with lower planting costs [8] Group 4: Data Summary Futures Market | Futures Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Trading Volume | Volume Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change Rate | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | PK604 | 7898 | - 34 | - 0.43% | 348 | 51.97% | 1700 | - 6.03% | | PK510 | 8140 | - 12 | - 0.15% | 66 | 247.37% | 474 | 9.98% | | PK601 | 7800 | - 22 | - 0.28% | 71128 | 3.92% | 170724 | - 2.86% | [2] Spot Market and Basis - Spot prices in Henan Nanyang are 7200 yuan/ton, Shandong Jining and Linyi are 8400 yuan/ton, Rizhao peanut meal is 3250 yuan/ton, Rizhao soybean meal is 2980 yuan/ton, peanut oil is 14580 yuan/ton, and Rizhao first - grade soybean oil is 8320 yuan/ton [2] - The basis for Henan Nanyang is - 600 yuan/ton, Shandong Jining and Linyi are 600 yuan/ton, and the difference between peanut oil and soybean oil is 6260 yuan/ton [2] - Import prices: Sudanese peanuts are 8500 yuan/ton, and Brazilian new peanuts are 9200 yuan/ton, Indian 50/60 peanuts are 8000 yuan/ton [2][4] Spread - PK01 - PK04 spread is - 98 yuan/ton with a change of 12 yuan/ton; PK04 - PK10 spread is - 242 yuan/ton with a change of - 22 yuan/ton; PK10 - PK01 spread is 340 yuan/ton with a change of 10 yuan/ton [2] Group 5: Market Analysis - Henan peanut prices have stabilized and rebounded, and Northeast peanut prices have also rebounded. The price of 308 common peanuts in Fuyu, Jilin is 4.15 yuan/jin, and in Changtu, Liaoning is 4.15 yuan/jin, both up 0.05 yuan/jin from yesterday. Henan Baisha common peanuts are quoted at 3.5 - 3.65 yuan/jin, up 0.05 yuan/jin [4] - Some peanut oil mills have started purchasing, with the mainstream transaction price at 7800 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the theoretical break - even price for oil mills is 7920 yuan/ton [4] - Rizhao soybean meal spot is strong, at 2980 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from yesterday. The unit - protein price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is high, and peanut meal is weak in the short - term, with 48 - protein peanut meal quoted at 3200 yuan/ton [6] Group 6: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Try short - term long positions for 01 and 05 peanut contracts as they are oscillating at low levels [9] - Calendar spread: Wait and see [10] - Options: Hold the short position of pk601 - P - 7600 [11] Group 7: Related Attachments - Figures include Shandong peanut spot prices, peanut oil mill crushing profit, peanut oil prices, peanut spot and continuous contract basis, peanut 10 - 1 contract spread, and peanut 1 - 4 contract spread [13][20][23]