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创业慧康(300451):收入确认延后及减值拖累利润
B-SOFTB-SOFT(SZ:300451) HTSC·2025-10-30 08:51

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.05 RMB [7][5]. Core Views - The company's revenue and profit have declined significantly due to market pressures, delayed customer demand, and project acceptance delays, leading to a revenue drop of 26.26% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025 [1]. - Despite the current challenges, the report suggests that the company's performance is expected to recover as industry demand improves, supported by the introduction of new products and successful project deliveries [1][3]. - The company has made significant strides in the AI and data service market, launching an AI medical intelligence system that enhances its traditional software offerings and shifts its business model towards "software + data services" [3][4]. Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 862 million RMB, a decrease of 26.26% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -122 million RMB, compared to a profit of 53 million RMB in the same period last year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 49.87%, showing a slight decrease of 0.27 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 2025 was 46.69%, an increase of 3.24 percentage points year-on-year [2]. Cost Structure - The report highlights an increase in sales, management, and R&D expense ratios due to the decline in revenue, with sales expenses at 8.35%, management expenses at 19.65%, and R&D expenses at 25.89% for Q3 2025 [2]. - The company has achieved a 20% increase in the number of million-level orders and a 7% increase in order value in the major customer market, indicating a positive trend despite overall revenue decline [2]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company has established itself as a key player in the medical information technology sector, achieving comprehensive compatibility with domestic technology routes and enhancing data security and autonomy for hospitals [4]. - The report projects a revenue forecast adjustment for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with expected revenues of 1.21 billion RMB, 1.34 billion RMB, and 1.48 billion RMB respectively, reflecting a downward adjustment of 25%, 27%, and 28% due to delayed project bidding [5][13].