瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term inventory of urea enterprises is expected to have small fluctuations. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1600 - 1650 in the short term [3][4] - The release of previously suppressed demand and the appropriate follow - up of some reserve demand have increased the new order transactions and shipment volume of urea factories. The inventory of urea enterprises decreased this week [3] - The start - up rate of domestic compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the autumn fertilizer tail orders are approaching the end, and the start - up rate of compound fertilizer next week is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1627 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 78 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] - The main contract's open interest is 270109 lots, down 240 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 31434 lots, up 3175 lots [3] - The exchange warehouse receipts are 0, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui are 1630, 1580, 1590, 1600, and 1590 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, - 10, - 10, 0, and 0 yuan/ton [3] - The main contract basis is - 27 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [3] - FOB Baltic is 348.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 375 dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 210,000 tons, down 236,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,554,300 tons, down 75,900 tons [3] - The urea enterprise start - up rate is 80.32%, up 2.29%; the daily output is 182,600 tons, down 6000 tons [3] - The urea export volume is 1.37 million tons, up 570,000 tons; the monthly output is 5,738,670 tons, down 190,010 tons [3] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer start - up rate is 27.71%, up 3.53%; the melamine start - up rate is 48.3%, down 6.88% [3] - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 153 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with outsourced urea is 220 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [3] - The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.6618 million tons, down 651,500 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,100 tons, down 3300 tons [3] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 29, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1,554,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66% [3] - As of October 30, the port sample inventory of Chinese urea was 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decline of 47.62% [3] - The domestic urea production has increased due to the resumption of previously overhauled devices, and the probability of output increase is high next week [3] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and start - up rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [3]