瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the caustic soda price was weak, but due to the high - operating - rate of chlorine - consuming downstream industries such as PVC, the consumption of liquid chlorine was smooth, and its price continued to rise, leading to a wider profit margin in the chlor - alkali industry. In the fourth quarter, as it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance and enterprises have sufficient willingness to operate under the current profit level, the supply pressure may remain high. The market price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to run weakly. For the futures, as there is an expectation of cost - based production cuts in alumina in the future, and the impact after implementation is greater than the replenishment demand of new alumina plants, the spot price is at a premium over the 01 contract. In terms of valuation, there is still room for compression in the profit level corresponding to the 01 contract. Attention should be paid to the realization of the alumina production cut expectation in the future [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 165,100 lots, an increase of 31,060 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures was - 30,729 lots, a decrease of 16,452 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 362,389 lots, an increase of 60,520 lots. The closing price of the January caustic soda contract was 2317 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44 yuan; the closing price of the May caustic soda contract was 2480 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3 yuan [3]. 现货市场 - The price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 950 yuan/ton, unchanged. The converted - to - 100% price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 183 yuan/ton, an increase of 44 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the Northwest, it was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of thermal coal was 649 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan; in Jiangsu, it was 125 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,120 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 2790 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.3%, a week - on - week increase of 3.5%. From October 18th to 24th, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese alumina was 86.27%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05%. From October 24th to 30th, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 89.64%, an increase of 1.03% compared with last week; the operating rate of printing and dyeing was 68.32%, an increase of 1.01% compared with last week. As of October 30th, the factory inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 442,600 wet tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.84%, and a year - on - year increase of 52.42%. From October 24th to 30th, the average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 626 yuan/ton [3].