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中钢国际(000928):毛利率持续提升,期待反内卷推动下国内业务逐步改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price not specified [7]. Core Views - The company has experienced a decline in revenue and profit in the first three quarters, with a revenue of 9.175 billion yuan, down 27.2% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 556 million yuan, down 13.21% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin has improved, reaching 15.26% for the first three quarters, an increase of 2.87 percentage points year-on-year, indicating a potential continuation of this upward trend [2]. - The company has a strong backlog of contracts, with a total of 41.676 billion yuan in signed but uncompleted contracts, and domestic new contracts have increased significantly due to the "anti-involution" trend in the steel industry [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.175 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 556 million yuan, down 13.21% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for the first three quarters was 15.26%, up 2.87 percentage points year-on-year, with a quarterly gross margin of 15.67% in Q3, up 0.87 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The company’s cash flow situation has improved significantly, with a net cash outflow of 12.11 billion yuan, a reduction of 27.74 billion yuan compared to the previous year [2]. - The company’s new contracts signed in the first three quarters totaled 10.649 billion yuan, with domestic orders increasing by 46.83% year-on-year [3]. Financial Data and Valuation - The projected revenue for 2025 is 14.702 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 16.69% [5]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 is estimated at 774.52 million yuan, a decrease of 7.27% year-on-year [5]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is projected to be 0.54 yuan [5]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 12.39 [5].