10月美联储议息会议点评：降息如期落地，美联储“放鹰”后宽松路径存疑

Monetary Policy Changes - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, marking the fifth rate cut since September 2024[3] - The decision to cut rates was influenced by moderate economic expansion, a slight increase in unemployment, and rising inflation rates[3] - The FOMC plans to end its balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025[3] Internal Disagreements - There were dissenting votes from two committee members: Stephen Milan advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while Jeffrey Smith preferred to maintain the current rate[3] - Chairman Powell indicated significant internal disagreement regarding future rate cuts, stating that December's decision is not guaranteed[3] Economic Outlook - Recent CPI data showed lower-than-expected inflation, which may facilitate further rate cuts[3] - The focus remains on employment data, with expectations that the Fed may continue to cut rates if the job market continues to weaken[3] Market Reactions - Following Powell's comments, market expectations for a December rate cut dropped from 90% to around 60%[3] - Short-term impacts on asset performance are anticipated, with potential negative effects on gold and U.S. equities due to reduced rate cut expectations[3] Risks and Considerations - Risks include global economic uncertainties, trade tensions, and the potential for inflationary pressures to re-emerge in 2026[4] - The domestic market may face challenges from the Fed's hawkish stance, affecting equity market performance[4]