瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - L2601 fluctuated weakly, closing at 6,968 yuan/ton. New maintenance devices were added this week, causing PE production to decline month-on-month. The downstream shed film is in the peak season, with orders and the start - up rate gradually reaching the annual high. Orders for express bags and bubble bags are accumulating before the e - commerce festival, leaving room for the start - up rate of packaging films to increase. Inventories of production enterprises and society are being depleted, with little inventory pressure. The cost of the oil - based process decreased slightly while losses deepened; the cost of the coal - based process increased significantly, and profitability shrank greatly. The market expects a slight increase in OPEC+ production in December, and combined with weak crude oil demand, international oil prices are under pressure. In the short term, L2601 is expected to weaken with oil prices, and technically, attention should be paid to the previous low support around 6,870 [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures主力合约收盘价:聚乙烯(日,元/吨) was 6,968, down 41; 1 - month contract was 6,968, down 41; 5 - month contract was 7,030, down 45; 9 - month contract was 7,066, down 39. The trading volume was 214,616 hands, up 1,678, and the open interest was 508,700 hands, down 3,569. The 1 - 5 spread was - 62, up 4. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 410,926 hands, up 5,094; the short position was 480,595 hands, up 4,494; the net long position was - 69,669 hands, up 600 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China was 7,025.65 yuan/ton, down 9.57; in East China was 7,175.24 yuan/ton, up 0.71. The basis was 57.65, up 31.43 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - FOB: middle price: naphtha: Singapore region was 61.91 US dollars/barrel, up 0.31; CFR: middle price: naphtha: Japan region was 571.13 US dollars/ton, up 2.5. The middle price of ethylene CFR Southeast Asia was 756 US dollars/ton, down 15; the middle price of ethylene CFR Northeast Asia was 766 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The start - up rate of PE in petrochemical plants nationwide was 81.46%, down 0.3 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene(PE) in packaging films was 52.59%, up 0.4; in pipes was 32.33%, up 0.33; in agricultural films was 47.11%, up 4.22 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene was 9.46%, down 0.02; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.1%, up 0.11. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options and call options of polyethylene was 9.58%, both down 0.62 [2] 3.7 Industry News - From October 24th to 30th, China's total polyethylene production was 643,500 tons, a decrease of 0.72% from last week. The capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 81.46%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from the previous period. From October 17th to 23rd, the average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.8% from the previous period. Among them, the overall start - up rate of agricultural films increased by 4.2%, and the start - up rate of PE packaging films increased by 0.4%. As of October 29th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 19.16%. As of October 24th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 527,400 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.30%. From October 18th to 24th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 0.42% month - on - month to 7,137 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit decreased by 44.43 yuan/ton month - on - month to - 125.14 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE increased by 4.02% month - on - month to 6,769 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit decreased by 301.85 yuan/ton month - on - month to 192.29 yuan/ton [2]