Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-30 09:25Report Summary 1. Report Date - The report is dated October 30, 2025 [1] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 3. Core View - The overall terminal demand for hot-rolled coils is resilient with increased apparent demand, higher than the same period last year. However, after the Fed's interest rate cut and the end of the China-US summit, market bullish sentiment has weakened. Technically, the 1-hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA have crossed and pulled back at high levels. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the HC main contract is 3,318 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the position volume is 1,473,286 lots, up 12,227 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the HC contract is - 61,090 lots, down 9,028 lots; the HC1 - 5 contract spread is - 9 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of HC on the SHFE is 128,835 tons, down 5,938 tons; the HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 212 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 4.2 Spot Market - The price of 4.75 hot - rolled coils in Hangzhou is 3,370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Guangzhou is 3,340 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; in Wuhan is 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Tianjin is 3,260 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The basis of the HC main contract is 52 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the price difference between hot - rolled coils and rebar in Hangzhou is 80 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 4.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB iron ore fines at Qingdao Port is 807 yuan/wet ton, up 4 yuan; the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan is 2,230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 3,000 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 144.2065 million tons, up 1.3895 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants is 373,700 tons, down 1,200 tons; the inventory of coke at sample steel mills is 6.3327 million tons, down 60,000 tons; the inventory of billets in Hebei is 1.1957 million tons, down 103,900 tons [2] 4.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.73%, up 0.48 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 89.92%, down 0.39 percentage points. The weekly output of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the capacity utilization rate of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 82.65%, up 0.28 percentage points. The weekly inventory of hot - rolled coils at sample steel mills is 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the weekly social inventory of hot - rolled coils in 33 cities is 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 73.49 million tons, down 3.88 million tons; the monthly net export volume of steel is 9.92 million tons, up 910,000 tons [2] 4.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of automobiles is 3.2758 million vehicles, up 460,400 vehicles; the monthly sales of automobiles is 3.2264 million vehicles, up 369,800 vehicles. The monthly output of air conditioners is 18.0948 million units, up 1.276 million units; the monthly output of household refrigerators is 10.1276 million units, up 674,400 units; the monthly output of household washing machines is 11.7849 million units, up 1.653 million units [2] 4.6 Industry News - On October 30, Mysteel reported that the actual weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2356 million tons, up 11,000 tons; the factory inventory was 776,600 tons, up 3,100 tons; the social inventory was 3.2893 million tons, down 86,400 tons; the total inventory was 4.0659 million tons, down 83,300 tons; the apparent demand was 3.3189 million tons, up 51,600 tons week - on - week. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance sheet reduction starting from December 1. Vietnam's Ministry of Industry and Trade launched an anti - circumvention investigation into the anti - dumping case of hot - rolled coils originating from China [2]