中化化肥(00297):逆势增长,龙头韧性
Changjiang Securities·2025-10-30 09:45

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [9] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of approximately RMB 19.37 billion for Q1 to Q3 of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.4%, and a net profit of approximately RMB 1.36 billion, also up by 6.0%. For Q3 2025, the revenue was about RMB 4.66 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.8%, and a net profit of approximately RMB 260 million, reflecting a 10.2% increase year-on-year [2][6] - The company is a leading player in China's fertilizer industry, with over 60 years of international trade experience and a distribution network covering 95% of China's arable land. The company emphasizes shareholder returns, with strong operating cash flow and a steadily increasing dividend payout ratio [9] - The company's full industry chain layout enhances its performance resilience, benefiting from phosphorous fertilizer export trade despite a general slowdown in the compound fertilizer industry due to increased rainfall and high sulfur prices [9] - The company is advancing its "Bio+" strategy, focusing on high-end biological compound fertilizers, supported by its major shareholder Syngenta and a national-level R&D platform. This strategy has led to the successful development of several biological fertilizer products, contributing to revenue growth [9] - The company is steadily expanding its phosphate mining capacity, with a resource volume of 200 million tons and an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons. Key projects are underway to enhance production capabilities [9] - The company has rebranded itself as a leader in crop nutrition and health, aiming to redefine its brand positioning and development path while addressing deep-seated industry issues [9] - The company is expected to maintain strong asset quality, profitability, and cash flow, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of RMB 1.46 billion, 1.55 billion, and 1.63 billion respectively, supporting the "Buy" rating [9]