Changjiang Securities·2025-10-30 09:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the heavy truck industry [3] Core Insights - The heavy truck industry is experiencing a significant recovery in demand, driven by policies encouraging vehicle replacement and infrastructure investments [9][12][22] - The sales of natural gas heavy trucks and new energy heavy trucks are showing strong growth, while exports have seen a decline but are expected to improve in the long term [32][50][75] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - In September 2025, wholesale sales of heavy trucks reached 100,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 73.3% and a month-on-month increase of 9.1% [9] - The number of registered heavy trucks was 83,000 units, up 92.0% year-on-year and 24.9% month-on-month [9] - Heavy truck exports totaled 32,000 units, down 22.7% year-on-year but up 8.3% month-on-month [9] - Inventory levels are decreasing, indicating a trend towards inventory destocking [13] Natural Gas Heavy Trucks - In September 2025, the sales of natural gas heavy trucks reached 23,000 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 148.8% and a month-on-month increase of 40.4% [33] - The penetration rate of natural gas heavy trucks was 28.1%, up 6.4 percentage points year-on-year [33] New Energy Heavy Trucks - New energy heavy truck sales reached 23,000 units in September 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 209.5% and a month-on-month increase of 33.6% [50] - The penetration rate for new energy heavy trucks was 28.2%, an increase of 10.7 percentage points year-on-year [50] Export Trends - Heavy truck exports in September 2025 were 32,000 units, down 23% year-on-year but up 8.3% month-on-month [75] - The export distribution by continent showed significant growth in Africa and Asia, while Europe experienced a decline [78]