银河期货油脂日报-20251030

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for the oil market is that the oil futures prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom, so it is advisable to wait and see. In the medium - term, the strategy is to buy on dips [10]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data Analysis - Spot Prices and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil 2601 was 8168 with a rise of 36; palm oil 2601 was 8828 with a fall of 14; and rapeseed oil 2601 was 9529 with a rise of 4. The basis of each oil variety in different regions showed different changes [3]. - Monthly Spread Closing Prices: For the 1 - 5 monthly spread, soybean oil was 184 with a rise of 12, palm oil was - 46 with a rise of 2, and rapeseed oil was 319 with a fall of 30 [3]. - Cross - Variety Spreads: For the 01 contract, the Y - P spread was - 660 with a rise of 50, the OI - Y spread was 1361, and the OI - P spread was 701 with a rise of 18. The oil - meal ratio was 2.73 with a fall of 0.01 [3]. - Import Profits: The 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia had a loss of 290, and the FOB price of rapeseed oil from Rotterdam was 1076 with a loss of 1127 [3]. - Weekly Commercial Oil Inventories (2025 Week 43): Soybean oil inventory was 57.6 (this week), 125.0 (last week), 122.4 (last year); palm oil was 60.7, 50.5, and rapeseed oil was 53.5, 54.9, 40.2 respectively [3]. Part 2: Fundamental Analysis - International Market: Malaysia's MPIC aims to strengthen the downstream development of palm oil in Sabah, especially in biodiesel production. Sabah is the largest crude palm oil - producing area in Malaysia, with a production of 4.27 million tons in 2024, accounting for 22.1% of the national total. The state has over 1.48 million hectares of oil palm plantations, about 26.43% of the national total, and 129 palm oil mills. There are three licensed biodiesel plants, creating about 160 jobs [5]. - Domestic Market (P/Y/OI): - Palm Oil: As of October 24, 2025 (Week 43), the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 60.71 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.14 tons (5.45%). The origin's quotation was stable, the import profit deficit widened to around - 300. The basis was stable. It is expected to oscillate slightly weaker in the short - term, and it is advisable to wait and see, then go long on the 05 contract after a pull - back and stabilization [5]. - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil futures price rose slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 2.3674 million tons, and the operating rate was 65.13%. As of October 24, 2025, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.2503 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 26,300 tons (2.15%). It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to wait and see, then go long after a pull - back and stabilization [7]. - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil futures price rose slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 11,000 tons, and the operating rate was 2.93%. As of October 24, 2025, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 535,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons. The European rapeseed oil FOB price increased to around 1100 US dollars, and the import profit deficit widened to around - 900. The domestic rapeseed oil basis was stable, and the coastal destocking trend is expected to continue [8]. Part 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see in the short - term, and buy on dips in the medium - term [10]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [11]. - Options: Wait and see [12].