银河期货航运日报-20251030

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. Spot freight rates are expected to gradually rise from November to December, and shipping companies are likely to continue to announce price increases. The market should focus on the implementation of these price increases. In terms of fundamentals, the shipping volume from November to December is expected to gradually improve, and attention should be paid to the impact of possible tariff improvements on the shipping rhythm. The shipping capacity from October to November remains relatively stable, with a slight increase in the average weekly shipping capacity in December. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the progress of the cease - fire agreement in the Middle East is tortuous and has recently escalated. The China - US economic and trade consultations have basically reached a consensus, and attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Futures Contract Performance: On October 30, 2025, the closing prices of EC2512, EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 decreased, with declines of - 1.45%, - 1.43%, - 1.55%, - 1.38%, - 2.22%, and - 0.63% respectively. The trading volumes of these contracts all decreased, with decreases of - 49.05%, - 47.43%, - 35.57%, - 38.06%, - 10.53%, and - 21.46% respectively. The positions of some contracts increased, while others decreased [4]. - Monthly Spread Structure: The spreads between different contracts showed various changes. For example, the spread of EC12 - EC02 decreased by 4.2, and the spread of EC02 - EC08 increased by 10.8 [4]. 3.2 Container Freight Rates - Weekly Container Freight Rates: The SCFIS European line index was 1312.71 points, with a week - on - week increase of 15.11% and a year - on - year decrease of 40.54%. The SCFIS US West line index was 1107.32 points, with a week - on - week increase of 28.24% and a year - on - year decrease of 60.70%. Different routes of the SCFI index also showed different trends in price changes [4]. 3.3 Fuel Costs - The price of WTI crude oil near - month was $60.00 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 12.56%. The price of Brent crude oil near - month was $64.3 per barrel, with a week - on - week increase of 0.69% and a year - on - year decrease of 11.5% [4]. 3.4 Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations - Market Analysis: The China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have basically reached a consensus. Some shipping companies have lowered their spot quotes, and the market is continuously gaming the subsequent freight rates. The EC futures market maintains a volatile trend. The spot freight rates of mainstream shipping companies have a large price difference, and the spot price center is expected to gradually rise. In terms of fundamentals, the demand from November to December is expected to improve, and the supply capacity in December will increase slightly. There are expectations of a reduction in port fees, and the Middle East geopolitical situation has escalated. Attention should be paid to the impact of tariff relaxation on future shipping volume and rhythm [5][6]. - Trading Strategies: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to maintain a volatile view and mainly wait and see in the short term. For arbitrage trading, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. 3.5 Industry News - Israel's military has started to re - implement the Gaza cease - fire agreement, while the Israeli Defense Forces will continue to take actions to eliminate any direct threats [8][9].