Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the game between geopolitics and policies. Geopolitical conflicts provide bottom support for prices, but factors such as US shale oil production increase, reduced Indian procurement, and concerns about economic slowdown due to the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations suppress the upward space. If OPEC+ does not send a clear signal to cut production and US production increases, oil prices may remain in low - level volatility. If geopolitical risks escalate or inventory is depleted more than expected, it may trigger a staged rebound [5] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary 1.1 Crude Oil Futures Market Data Change Analysis - On October 29, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 458 yuan/barrel, down 1.78% from the previous day. WTI and Brent closed at 60.18 and 63.86 dollars/barrel respectively, with a decline of over 2%. The SC - Brent spread widened from 0.9 to 1.3 dollars/barrel, and the SC - WTI spread strengthened from 4.39 to 4.98 dollars/barrel, indicating that SC crude oil was relatively resistant to decline compared to the external market. The Brent - WTI spread slightly widened from 3.49 to 3.68 dollars/barrel, reflecting an increase in Brent's discount to WTI [2] - SC crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4.202 million barrels, indicating stable liquidity in the spot market. Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 37,700 liters from the previous week to 10.0272 million liters, and the refinery operating rate increased from 86.2% to 91.2%, suggesting a recovery in refining demand in Asia [3] 1.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply side: Geopolitical conflicts continue to disrupt supply. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries and oil storage facilities may suppress Russian refining capacity in the short term, but Russian crude oil exports are not currently affected by sanctions. The production of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in Norway may decline next year, while the production increase at the Bacalhau oilfield in Brazil is going smoothly, and the December loading plan in the North Sea is stable. The supply side shows regional differentiation. The acceleration of US shale oil development and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations may increase medium - term supply pressure [4] - Demand side: The implied demand for US distillate oil increased from 4.9193 million barrels/day to 5.0873 million barrels/day, showing support from industrial and seasonal demand. The increase in Japan's refinery operating rate and the decrease in refined oil inventory indicate marginal improvement in Asian demand. However, Indian refiners such as MRPL have suspended purchasing Russian oil due to sanctions risks, which may lead to local trade flow adjustments. Germany's high dependence on Russian oil may exacerbate European energy supply uncertainty if it nationalizes Rosneft's business in Germany [4] - Inventory side: Japan's crude oil and refined oil inventories have decreased across the board, the US EIA commercial inventory has not shown significant accumulation, and China's SC warehouse receipts are stable. Currently, global inventory pressure is not prominent. However, attention should be paid to the potential impact of US shale oil production increase and Brazil's new production capacity release on future inventory [4] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring 2.1 Crude Oil - Futures prices: On October 29, SC was at 462.6 yuan/barrel, down 0.02% from the previous day; WTI was at 60.36 dollars/barrel, up 0.30%; Brent was at 64.3 dollars/barrel, up 0.69% [7] - Spot prices: Among them, the price of OPEC's basket of crude oils remained unchanged at 65.46 dollars/barrel; the price of Brent increased by 1.15 dollars/barrel to 65.62 dollars/barrel, with a rise of 1.78%; the price of Oman decreased by 0.94 dollars/barrel to 64.66 dollars/barrel, a decline of 1.43%, etc. [7] - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread decreased from 1.3 to 0.86 dollars/barrel, a decline of 33.85%; the SC - WTI spread decreased from 4.98 to 4.8 dollars/barrel, a decline of 3.61%; the Brent - WTI spread increased from 3.68 to 3.94 dollars/barrel, a rise of 7.07% [7] - Other assets: The US dollar index rose from 98.72 to 99.12, an increase of 0.41%; the S&P 500 index decreased slightly by 0.3 points to 6,890.59 points; the DAX index decreased by 154.42 points to 24,124.21 points, a decline of 0.64%; the RMB exchange rate remained unchanged [7] - Inventory: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 6.858 million barrels to 415.966 million barrels, a decline of 1.62%; Cushing inventory increased by 1.334 million barrels to 22.565 million barrels, a rise of 6.28%; the US strategic reserve inventory increased by 0.533 million barrels to 409.097 million barrels, an increase of 0.13% [7] - Operating rate: The weekly operating rate of US refineries decreased from 88.6% to 86.6%, a decline of 2.26%; the crude oil processing volume of US refineries decreased by 511,000 barrels/day to 1.5219 million barrels/day, a decline of 3.25% [7] 2.2 Fuel Oil - Futures prices: FU decreased from 2,818 yuan/ton to 2,796 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.78%; LU decreased from 3,273 yuan/ton to 3,246 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.82%; NYMEX fuel oil increased from 238.58 cents/gallon to 242.28 cents/gallon, an increase of 1.55% [8] - Spot prices: Most of the spot prices remained unchanged, with only the Russian M100 CIF price decreasing from 445 dollars/ton to 441 dollars/ton, a decline of 0.90% [8] - Paper prices: The prices of high - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore (near - month) decreased by 2.61% and 2.56% respectively [8] - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread is not provided, the Chinese high - low sulfur spread decreased from 455 yuan/ton to 450 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.10%; the LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) spread decreased from - 1,840 yuan/ton to - 1,867 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.47%; the FU - Singapore 380CST spread decreased from - 1,808 yuan/ton to - 1,830 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.22% [8] - Inventory: Some US distillate inventories decreased, such as the DOE distillate inventory decreasing by 3.362 million barrels to 112.189 million barrels, a decline of 2.91%, while the inventory of US distillates (>500ppm) increased by 49,000 barrels to 7.05 million barrels, an increase of 0.70% [8] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations 3.1 Supply - On October 29, India's HMEL company suspended further purchases of Russian crude oil. Ukraine attacked two Russian refineries and a natural gas processing plant. Russian crude oil exports are in line with the October plan and are not currently affected by new sanctions. The production of the Johan Sverdrup oilfield in Norway may decline next year, while the production increase at the Bacalhau oilfield in Brazil is going smoothly. The loading volume of North Sea crude oil in December is stable. China's Xinjiang Jimusar shale oil annual output has exceeded 1.5 million tons [9][10] 3.2 Demand - The implied demand for US distillate oil in the week ending October 24 increased from 4.9193 million barrels/day to 5.0873 million barrels/day [10] 3.3 Inventory - On October 29, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's energy - chemical warehouse receipts remained mostly unchanged. As of the week ending October 25, Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased, and the refinery operating rate increased [11] 3.4 Market Information - The UK may cancel the windfall profit tax on the oil and gas industry earlier than expected. The Fed's interest - rate decision is expected to be cut. Germany is discussing the nationalization of Rosneft's business in Germany. Indian refiners have suspended purchasing Russian oil due to sanctions risks. An Indian - Vitol joint venture is expected to be established in Singapore [12] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent front - month contracts, the spread between SC and WTI, US weekly crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, and various inventory and operating rate data charts [14][16][18]
地缘风险对冲供应增量，原油震荡承压
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-30 10:23