美联储10月利率决议点评：雾中降息，鹰声来袭

Monetary Policy Decisions - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point rate cut on October 29, 2025, aligning with market expectations[5] - The decision to end quantitative tightening (QT) on December 1, 2025, was also in response to market pressures[9] Internal Disagreements - A notable division within the Federal Reserve was highlighted, with 12 voting members: 10 supported a 25 basis point cut, one (Milan) advocated for a 50 basis point cut, and one (Schmidt) opposed any cut[8] - The divergence indicates increasing internal disagreements regarding economic data and future rate adjustments[8] Economic Indicators - Employment appears stable, with the Fed's language shifting from a focus on slowing to a more stable outlook[9] - Inflation remains relatively high compared to earlier in the year, with the Fed acknowledging ongoing pressures[9] Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surged above 4.05%, reflecting a hawkish market interpretation[11] - The U.S. dollar index briefly exceeded 99.3 before retreating, indicating volatility in response to the Fed's statements[11] Consumer Confidence - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index continued to decline in October, reflecting growing uncertainty in the U.S. economy[18] - Factors contributing to this decline include perceived job market cooling and fluctuating inflation expectations[18] Future Outlook - The outlook for further rate cuts has weakened, with market expectations for a December cut now at approximately 67% probability[18] - The market may shift focus back to geopolitical risks and corporate earnings as consumer confidence wanes[18] Risk Factors - Potential risks include unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions[26]