国证国际港股晨报-20251030

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 0.33%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index down by 0.97%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index decreasing by 1.26% [2][3] - The total market turnover was HKD 242.7 billion, with short selling amounting to HKD 33.6 billion, representing 15.99% of the total turnover [2] - Southbound capital inflow decreased to HKD 2.26 billion, with the most net buying in China Mobile, Hua Hong Semiconductor, and Pop Mart, while Alibaba, Tencent, and ZTE saw the most net selling [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Defensive stocks and resource stocks were sold off due to a rebound in market risk appetite, leading to a significant drop in gold prices [3] - The gold and non-ferrous metal sectors saw notable declines, with major gold stocks like Zijin Mining, Zhaojin Mining, and Shandong Gold all falling [3] - The consumer sector also faced downward pressure, with sports goods, luxury goods, tobacco, and local retail stocks all weakening [3] - The pharmaceutical and biotech sectors continued to adjust, with companies like Heng Rui Pharmaceutical experiencing significant declines post-earnings [3] Group 3: Company Analysis - Tmall (6110.HK) - Tmall reported a 6.6% year-on-year decline in revenue to HKD 27.01 billion and a 41.9% drop in net profit to HKD 1.29 billion, which was in line with expectations [8][9] - The company declared a final dividend of HKD 0.02 per share and a special dividend of HKD 0.12 per share, resulting in an annual payout ratio of 135% [9] - Despite the revenue decline, Tmall achieved a 20% increase in operating cash flow, reaching HKD 3.8 billion, due to effective working capital management [9] Group 4: Strategic Initiatives - Tmall is focusing on optimizing its store structure, with a 18.3% reduction in the number of direct stores to 5,020 and a 12.4% decrease in sales area [10] - The company is implementing stricter standards for store openings and locations to enhance operational efficiency [10] - Tmall is deepening collaborations with high-end brands like SOAR Running and Norda to diversify its brand matrix and strengthen its market presence [10] Group 5: Future Outlook - The report predicts a gradual recovery in performance as the retail consumption environment improves, with expected EPS of HKD 0.21, 0.22, and 0.23 for FY26, FY27, and FY28 respectively [10] - A target price of HKD 3.6 is set for the 2026 fiscal year, maintaining a "Buy" rating based on the company's high dividend policy and potential for recovery [8][10]