瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of reduced supply and slightly increased demand, with prices potentially supported. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum market may be in a stage of slightly increased supply and strong consumption, with inventory reduction and positive expectations. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. - The cast aluminum market may be in a stage of tight supply - demand balance, with inventory reduction and positive expectations. Suggest light - position oscillatory trading [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract was 21,245 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 50 yuan, down 50 yuan. The main contract position decreased by 7,311 hands to 275,967 hands. The LME aluminum three - month quote was 2,870 US dollars/ton, down 24 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,900 tons to 462,750 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.04 to 7.40 [2]. - The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,816 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 63 yuan, up 10 yuan. The main contract position increased by 15,281 hands to 392,755 hands [2]. - The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,705 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main - second - contract spread was - 135 yuan, down 80 yuan. The main contract position was 13,046 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 21,300 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot was 21,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 2,790 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2]. - The basis of cast aluminum alloy was 595 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 45 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium/discount was - 10 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the LME aluminum premium/discount was - 0.99 US dollars/ton, down 3.60 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The alumina production was 799.90 million tons, up 7.42 million tons; the alumina开工率 was 85.98%, up 3.05 percentage points. The demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part was 704.31 million tons, down 21.49 million tons [2]. - The export volume of alumina was 25 million tons, up 7 million tons; the import volume was 6 million tons, down 3.44 million tons. The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was - 10.54 million tons, up 1.45 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 57.60 million tons, up 0.80 million tons. The total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged. The electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points [2]. - The primary aluminum import volume was 246,797.10 tons, up 31,034.96 tons; the primary aluminum export volume was 28,969.92 tons, up 3,365.58 tons. The aluminum product production was 590 million tons, up 35.18 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.35 million tons, down 0.56 million tons. The national real - estate climate index was 92.78, down 0.27 [2]. - The automobile production was 322.65 million vehicles, up 47.42 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai aluminum was 9.71%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.23%, down 0.03 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai aluminum main contract at - the - money was 12.36%, up 0.0175 percentage points; the call - put ratio was 1.38, up 0.0569 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - A central - enterprise strategic emerging - industry development special fund was launched with an initial scale of 51 billion yuan, focusing on strategic emerging industries and future industries [2]. - In September, the comprehensive inventory coefficient of automobile dealers was 1.35, up 3.1% month - on - month and 4.7% year - on - year, with the inventory level below the warning line but higher than the reasonable range [2]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the second time this year, ending the balance - sheet reduction from December 1st. There were significant differences within the Fed on the subsequent path [2]. - Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet with US President Trump in Busan, South Korea, on October 30th to exchange views on Sino - US relations and common concerns [2] 3.8 Alumina Viewpoint - The alumina main contract oscillated weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The supply may decrease due to squeezed smelter profits, while the demand may be slightly boosted by high - running electrolytic aluminum capacity and positive macro expectations [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The Shanghai aluminum main contract oscillated weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The supply may increase slightly, and the consumption may be strong, with inventory reduction and positive expectations. The option market sentiment is bullish [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - The cast aluminum main contract oscillated weakly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and weakening basis. The supply may be restricted by tight raw materials, and the demand is resilient, with inventory reduction and positive expectations [2]