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天工国际(00826):突破粉末冶金长期瓶颈助力大国高端制造全面开花

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [5][9]. Core Insights - The company is a leading player in the global tool steel sector, with a solid foundation for sustainable profitability. It has made breakthroughs in powder metallurgy and titanium alloy technologies, positioning itself in high-growth sectors such as integrated die-casting for electric vehicles, consumer electronics, and aerospace, establishing a clear second growth curve [6][9]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 49.41 billion, 56.99 billion, and 65.45 billion RMB, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.2%, 15.3%, and 14.8%. Corresponding net profits are projected at 4.31 billion, 6.20 billion, and 8.50 billion RMB, with growth rates of 20.0%, 43.9%, and 37.2% [6][9]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - As of October 28, 2025, the closing price is 3.05 HKD, with a market capitalization of 8,311.25 million HKD. The stock has seen a one-year high of 3.28 HKD and a low of 1.65 HKD [3]. Business Overview - The company has been in the special steel industry for over 40 years, evolving from a cutting tool manufacturer to a leader in high-end materials, covering high-speed steel, tool steel, cutting tools, and titanium alloys [8][18]. - The company has a concentrated and stable shareholding structure, with the Zhu family as the actual controllers, ensuring strategic execution continuity [8][17]. Financial Performance - The company reported a revenue of 5,163.31 million RMB in 2023, with a projected decline in 2024 followed by a recovery in subsequent years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin have remained stable, supported by high R&D investment [7][31]. - The first half of 2025 saw a revenue decline of 7.1% year-on-year, attributed to reduced exports and lower demand from consumer electronics. However, net profit increased by 10.4% due to favorable currency exchange rates and improved gross margins in tool steel [22][23]. Growth Drivers - The company’s core business in tool steel is expected to enter an upward cycle, driven by domestic demand recovery and import substitution in high-end materials [8][22]. - The titanium alloy business is positioned to benefit from expanding demand in consumer electronics and aerospace, with significant growth potential as the market evolves [8][37]. Technological Advancements - The company has successfully established a powder metallurgy production line, filling a domestic gap in the large-scale production of tool steel, and is expected to lead in domestic substitution efforts [15][18]. - Ongoing R&D efforts have resulted in numerous innovations, including high-nitrogen alloy materials and advanced titanium products, enhancing the company's competitive edge in high-end manufacturing [31][34].