银河期货鸡蛋日报-20251030

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply side of laying hens is still at a high level, with the national laying hen inventory in September being 1.368 billion, higher than expected. The demand side is generally weak. In the short - term, without significant improvement, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - Futures prices: JD01 closed at 3353, down 15 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3457, down 20; JD09 closed at 3847, down 16 [2]. - Spread: 01 - 05 spread was - 104, up 5; 05 - 09 spread was - 390, down 4; 09 - 01 spread was 494, down 1 [2]. - Ratio: 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.59, unchanged; 01 egg/soybean meal ratio was 1.12, down 0.01. Similar trends were seen in other contracts [2]. 2. Spot Market - Egg prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, both unchanged from the previous day. Most mainstream prices across the country remained stable [2][4]. - Culled chicken prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 4 yuan/jin, down 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [6]. - Profit calculation: The profit per chicken was 0.28 yuan, down 0.03 yuan from the previous day. The chicken苗 price was 3.21 yuan, up 0.04 yuan. Feed prices were mostly stable [2]. 3. Fundamental Information - Production area prices: The average price in the main producing areas was 2.86 yuan/jin, and in the main selling areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, both unchanged. Most mainstream prices across the country remained stable, and egg prices continued to fluctuate and consolidate with average sales [4]. - Laying hen inventory: In September, the national laying hen inventory was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase. The estimated inventory from October 2025 to January 2026 is 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively [5]. - Chicken苗 output: In September, the monthly output of chicken苗 from sample enterprises (about 50% of the country) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease and a 14% year - on - year decrease [5]. - Culled chicken volume: From October 24th to the previous week, the number of culled chickens in the main producing areas was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease. The average culling age was 499 days, unchanged [5]. - Egg sales volume: As of October 25th, the egg sales volume in the representative selling areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week [5]. - Profit: As of October 23rd, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 24th, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 0.51 yuan/feather, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - Inventory: As of October 17th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week. The average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, unchanged [6]. 4. Trading Logic - Supply is high and demand is weak. In the short - term, egg prices are expected to be weak. However, the recent increase in culled chickens and downstream restocking have led to a slight rebound in spot prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [7]. 5. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [8]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [8].