反弹受阻

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The urea futures market opened high and closed low, with the spot market being lukewarm. The downstream domestic demand is sluggish, and there is low acceptance of high prices. The supply - demand situation is loose, and the upward space is limited. Attention should be paid to the progress of winter storage [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened high and closed low on October 30, 2025, with the main 2601 contract closing at 1627 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.97%. The spot market is tepid, and the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton [1][2]. - The daily urea production has slightly rebounded recently, with some plants under inspection or shut - down, resulting in little production fluctuation. The cost side is strongly supported by the high coal price due to the serious losses of gas - based plants. The demand side shows that the operating load of compound fertilizer plants has increased, but the terminal sales are not as expected, and the inventory of finished products in the factory has increased [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1648 yuan/ton, closed at 1627 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.97% and a position of 489700 lots (-3447 lots). On October 30, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 0, unchanged from the previous trading day. Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, the long position increased by 2773 lots, and the short position decreased by 731 lots [2]. - Spot: The spot market is not active, and the downstream has low acceptance of high prices. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1530 - 1590 yuan/ton [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation remained stable, while the futures closing price declined. Based on Henan, the basis of the January contract was - 47 yuan/ton (+17 yuan/ton) [6]. - Supply: On October 30, 2025, the national daily urea production was 19.04 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 80.45% [7]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of October 31, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 155.43 tons, a decrease of 7.59 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 4.66%. The pre - sale order days were 7.53 days, an increase of 0.12 days from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.62% [11]. - Downstream: From October 24 to October 31, the utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity was 31.04%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average utilization rate of Chinese melamine production capacity was 49.98%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from the previous week [13].