上能电气（300827）：业务稳增海外布局可期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of RMB 39.30 [1]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.38 billion in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.0%. However, the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 110 million, showing a decline of 21.8% year-on-year and 2.2% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The company is expanding its overseas business, particularly in regions like India, the Middle East, Africa, and Europe, which is expected to drive profitability improvements as demand increases [2][3]. - The company has successfully integrated its energy storage PCS and system integration businesses into international markets, achieving higher gross margins compared to domestic levels [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved a gross margin of 24.2% and a net margin of 8.0%. The net financial expense ratio was 3.66%, significantly impacted by foreign exchange losses due to the depreciation of the Indian Rupee [1]. - The estimated revenue from the photovoltaic inverter segment for the first three quarters of 2025 is approximately RMB 2.4 billion, with a gross margin of 21-23% [2]. Market Outlook - The global photovoltaic inverter market is expected to maintain steady growth, with the company's overseas business likely to become a key driver for profit improvement [2]. - The company is focusing on local production capabilities in India to accelerate its overseas market expansion, which is anticipated to enhance its profitability as demand continues to grow [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecasted net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is RMB 450 million, RMB 662 million, and RMB 818 million, respectively, with corresponding EPS of RMB 0.89, RMB 1.31, and RMB 1.62 [4]. - The company is assigned a 2026E PE of 30x, reflecting its growth potential as it expands its overseas business [4].