美联储偏鹰，有色承压

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Copper: Copper prices showed weak performance today with little change in open interest. After the October FOMC meeting, the Fed's hawkish stance reduced market expectations for a December rate cut, causing the US dollar index to rebound and putting pressure on copper prices. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic copper increased slightly on Thursday, and downstream market sentiment was cautious. After the China-US summit, the relaxation of mutual tariff policies may improve the macro environment. Continued attention should be paid to the support of the 5-day moving average [4]. - Aluminum: Aluminum prices fluctuated weakly today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, but aluminum prices were relatively resilient. On the industrial side, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly on Thursday, providing support for aluminum prices. Technically, attention should be paid to the pressure at the previous high [5]. - Nickel: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel increased while prices declined today. Affected by the Fed's hawkish stance, the macro environment was weak, and nickel prices continued to fall. The weakness in the industrial sector led investors to prefer short positions in nickel to hedge long positions in non-ferrous metals. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics - Copper: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic copper was 192,200 tons, an increase of 3,600 tons from Monday. Goldman Sachs believes that even considering a significant decline in global refined copper production, the copper market will experience a slight supply surplus in 2026, consistent with its forecast of a copper price of $10,500 per ton in 2026 [8]. - Aluminum: On October 30, Mysteel's social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 605,000 tons, a decrease of 11,000 tons from Monday [8]. - Nickel: On October 30, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel ranged from 120,800 to 123,600 yuan per ton, with an average price of 122,200 yuan per ton, an increase of 300 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The average premium of Jinchuan 1 electrolytic nickel was 2,450 yuan per ton, an increase of 50 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The spot premium of domestic mainstream brands of electrowon nickel ranged from -200 to 100 yuan per ton [9]. 4. Related Charts - Copper: The report includes charts on copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper, overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [10][11][12]. - Aluminum: The report includes charts on aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina inventory, and aluminum bar inventory [21][23][25]. - Nickel: The report includes charts on nickel basis, LME nickel trend, SHFE inventory, nickel monthly spread, and nickel ore port inventory [34][37][39].