Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar dropped from a high level, with a daily decline of 0.38%, an increase in trading volume, and stable open interest. In the current situation of both supply and demand increasing, the fundamentals of rebar have limited improvement, the pressure of inventory reduction remains, and steel prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are the warm market sentiment and the cost support brought by the strong raw materials. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil rose first and then fell, with a daily decline of 0.33%, and an increase in both trading volume and open interest. Currently, the supply of hot-rolled coil is relatively high, while there are concerns about demand, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. Prices are still prone to pressure. The relatively positive factors are cost support and optimistic sentiment. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated at a high level, with a daily increase of 0.38%, a decrease in trading volume, and an increase in open interest. Currently, the market sentiment is warm, and combined with the change in the variety logic, the futures price of iron ore has returned to a high level. However, the supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is not strong. Be cautious when bullish at high levels, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - President Xi Jinping held talks with US President Trump in Busan on October 30, emphasizing the importance of stable China-US relations [6]. - From October 1 - 26, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 1.613 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 7% and a 4% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 18.621 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8%. The wholesale volume of national passenger car manufacturers was 1.871 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 1% and a 5% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative wholesale volume this year was 22.718 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. The retail sales of the new energy passenger car market were 901,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 0% and an 8% decrease from the same period last month. The cumulative retail sales this year were 9.771 million units, a year-on-year increase of 22% [7]. - On October 27, 2025, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Announcement No. 2025/100, maintaining the existing anti-dumping measures on Chinese wire rods [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,200 yuan, and the national average price was 3,265 yuan. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai and Tianjin were 3,330 yuan and 3,260 yuan respectively, and the national average price was 3,373 yuan. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3,000 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,160 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 130 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1,040 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 805 yuan, and the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 827 yuan. The ocean freight from Australia was 9.48 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.11 yuan. The SGX swap price was 105.95 yuan, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 108.40 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,106 yuan, with a decline of 0.38%. The trading volume was 1,440,978 lots, an increase of 201,376 lots, and the open interest was 1,894,916 lots, an increase of 909 lots [11]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures active contract was 3,318 yuan, with a decline of 0.33%. The trading volume was 614,494 lots, an increase of 40,700 lots, and the open interest was 1,473,286 lots, an increase of 12,227 lots [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 802.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.38%. The trading volume was 325,873 lots, a decrease of 28,571 lots, and the open interest was 551,548 lots, an increase of 8,698 lots [11]. Related Charts - The report includes various charts related to steel and iron ore inventory, such as weekly changes in rebar and hot-rolled coil inventory, national 45-port iron ore inventory, and 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory [13][18]. - It also includes charts on steel mill production conditions, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, and the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [27][29][33]. Market Outlook - Rebar: Both supply and demand have increased. The weekly output of rebar increased by 59,100 tons month-on-month, and the inventory is relatively high. The demand for rebar has improved, but it is still at a low level in recent years. The fundamentals have limited improvement, and the inventory reduction pressure remains. Steel prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - Hot-rolled coil: The supply-demand pattern has improved slightly, and the inventory has been reduced again. The weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 6,200 tons month-on-month, and the inventory is high. The demand performance is okay, but there are concerns about the demand. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and prices are still prone to pressure. It is expected that the trend will continue to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the demand performance [34]. - Iron ore: The supply-demand pattern continues to weaken. The terminal consumption of iron ore by steel mills continues to decline, and the demand is expected to continue to decrease. The supply of iron ore is at a high level. Although the futures price has returned to a high level, the fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is not strong. Be cautious when bullish at high levels, and pay attention to the performance of finished products [35].
利好预期兑现，钢矿高位回落：钢材&铁矿石日报-20251030
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-10-30 12:10