Group 1: Market Information - The Fuji apple price index was 107.18, down 0.43 from the previous trading day; the average wholesale price of 6 fruits was 7.21, up 0.01 [2] - Among futures prices, AP01 was 9268, up 70 from the previous night; AP05 was 9664, down 20; AP10 was 8453, down 57 [2] Group 2: Market News and Views Apple Market News - As of September 25, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas of China was 147,900 tons, a decrease of 60,200 tons from the previous week [5] - In August 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 68,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 27.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.6%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative export volume was about 532,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.7%. In August 2025, the import volume was 11,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume was 98,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 22% [5] - The apple market in the producing areas remained stable yesterday. In Shandong, the purchasing enthusiasm of merchants was good, mainly trading in general goods. In the northwest producing areas, the acquisition was in the middle - late stage, and the proportion of unharvested goods was small, with cold - storage warehousing continuing [6] - In the 2024 - 2025 production season, the profit of storage merchants for 80 first - and second - grade apples in Qixia was 0.4 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.1 yuan per catty from the previous week [7] - The mainstream transaction prices of apples in Luochuan, Shaanxi and Qixia, Shandong were stable. In Luochuan, the mainstream price of semi - commercial 70 and above apples was 3.5 - 4.0 yuan per catty. In Qixia, the price of new - season paper - bag Fuji 80 and above first - and second - grade apples was 3.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty [8] Trading Logic - The high - quality fruit rate of new - season apples is poor this year due to weather. The apple quality is low, the fruit diameter is small, and the proportion of water cracks and mold diseases has increased. The high - quality fruit rate is poor, resulting in a low apple warehouse - receipt production rate and high warehouse - receipt costs [9] - The poor apple quality makes it difficult to preserve, and the market is worried that cold - storage apples cannot be preserved until the far - month delivery. The apple storage volume may be lower than expected, and the high - quality effective inventory may be even lower [9] - Recently, the apple price has shown a strong trend, but considering the large increase and high current price, the upward space may be relatively limited [11] Trading Strategy - For unilateral trading, it is recommended that previous long positions take profits and wait and see [12] - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [13][14] Group 3: Related Attachments - The report includes 10 figures, such as the price of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bag 80 apples, the price of Luochuan semi - commercial paper - bag 70 apples, AP contract main - force basis, and the price difference between different AP contracts, etc. [16][17][23]
银河期货苹果日报-20251030
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-30 12:10