2025年10月美国FOMC会议：美联储如期降息，鹰派发言主导市场

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%-4.00% as expected[2] - The Fed announced it will end quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025[2] - Powell's hawkish comments indicated that a further rate cut in December is not guaranteed, highlighting internal disagreements within the Fed[2] Group 2: Economic Outlook - Economic fundamentals remain largely unchanged since September, with a balanced labor market and inflation slightly above the 2% target[2] - Strong AI investments and resilient consumer spending support steady economic growth, distinguishing the current AI boom from the internet bubble[2] - The market is pricing in a 67.8% probability that there will be no rate cut in December[4] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the FOMC meeting, U.S. Treasury yields rose, while stock markets and gold prices declined[2] - The expectation for a total of 75 basis points in rate cuts throughout 2025 remains, with a 25 basis point cut in December still considered the baseline scenario[2]