再度降息、停止缩表，鲍威尔却为何更鹰？：——美联储FOMC会议点评（25.10）

Monetary Policy Actions - The Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75%-4.0%, totaling a 50 basis point reduction for the year[3] - The Fed will stop balance sheet reduction starting December 1, allowing MBS to mature and reinvesting in short-term Treasury securities[12] Economic Outlook - Powell indicated that inflation risks are skewed to the upside while employment risks are skewed to the downside, creating a challenging situation[3] - Current economic indicators suggest moderate expansion, but the government shutdown has delayed the release of various economic data[3] Inflation Analysis - Powell highlighted three factors affecting inflation: tariffs pushing up goods prices, declining housing services, and stable core non-housing services due to slightly restrictive monetary policy[4] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is expected to persist until spring 2026, with potential for a rebound in core inflation due to tariff transmission and base effects[4] Labor Market Insights - The weakening labor market is attributed to a significant decline in labor supply and a decrease in labor demand, influenced by tighter immigration policies and previous tariff impacts[4] - Recent tax cuts from the Inflation Reduction Act and recent rate cuts may help restore labor demand over time[4] Balance Sheet Management - The Fed's balance sheet reduction pace has slowed to $5 billion per month since March, with Powell stating further reductions are not meaningful[12] - The decision to stop balance sheet reduction aims to avoid upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields and alleviate government debt burdens[16] Risks and Uncertainties - There is uncertainty regarding the extent and speed of future rate cuts by the Fed, which may be less than market expectations[16] - The potential for inflationary pressures from tariffs may limit the Fed's ability to cut rates aggressively in the short term[16]