Changjiang Securities·2025-10-30 13:40Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Views - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 2.582 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 626 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.4% [2][4]. - The third quarter continued the positive trend from the first half of the year, with a quarterly heating volume increase of 100% year-on-year and a net profit margin improvement of 4.09 percentage points [2][10]. - The company has entered a pure operation phase since January 2024, with stable processing capacity at 40,300 tons per day, and a cumulative waste volume of 10.9219 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.00% [10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 899 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and a net profit of 249 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.2% [4][10]. - The gross profit margin in Q3 decreased slightly by 0.03 percentage points, but the overall gross margin for the first three quarters increased by 3.19 percentage points, indicating good efficiency improvements in the main business [10]. - The company’s operating cash flow in Q3 increased by 35.1% year-on-year, reaching 691 million yuan, supported by significant increases in government subsidy payments and cash received from sales [10]. Operational Efficiency - The company has actively expanded its sludge direct spray disposal, heating, and biogas purification businesses to generate incremental revenue [10]. - The financial expenses in Q3 decreased by 14.35 million yuan, mainly due to lower bank interest rates and reduced borrowing balances [10]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio and interest-bearing asset-liability ratio decreased by 1.7 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, respectively, indicating a trend of decreasing leverage [10]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 684 million yuan, 731 million yuan, and 776 million yuan in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 16.8%, 6.94%, and 6.16% [10]. - Assuming a dividend payout ratio of 60%, 65%, and 70% for the respective years, the corresponding dividend yields are projected to be 3.99%, 4.63%, and 5.29% [10].