Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][6]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 32.805 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.4%. The revenue for Q3 alone was 11.792 billion yuan, up 2.6% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters was 10.302 billion yuan, a 2.9% increase year-on-year, with Q3 net profit reaching 3.986 billion yuan, growing 8.96% year-on-year [6]. - The company's ability to control costs is highlighted, as the profit growth rate outpaced revenue growth. The fixed cost structure of railway assets shows diminishing marginal effects, and the company has demonstrated effective cost management [6]. - National railway passenger traffic is steadily increasing, with a total of 3.54 billion passengers transported from January to September, marking a 6% year-on-year increase. The core lines, including the Beijing-Shanghai line, are expected to benefit from long-term growth [6]. - The report maintains profit forecasts for 2025E-2027E, estimating net profits of 14.55 billion yuan, 15.613 billion yuan, and 17.737 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to price-to-earnings ratios of 18, 16, and 14 [6]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 42.157 billion yuan - 2025: 45.123 billion yuan - 2026: 47.289 billion yuan - 2027: 50.391 billion yuan - Net profit projections are: - 2024: 12.768 billion yuan - 2025: 14.550 billion yuan - 2026: 15.613 billion yuan - 2027: 17.737 billion yuan - The report indicates a gross margin improvement from 48.0% in 2024 to 51.1% in 2027 [2][8].
京沪高铁（601816）：核心路产车流量稳健增长，25Q3单季度利润同比增长39%-45%