天富期货生猪大跌、豆粕续升

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The agricultural product market shows a mixed trend. Pigs, palm oil, corn, and jujubes are in a downward or weakening state, while soybeans, cotton, apples, eggs, and sugar are in an upward or stable state, each influenced by different supply - demand and technical factors [1]. 3. Summary by Variety (1) Hog - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of hogs has fallen sharply and returned to a downward trend due to an increase in pig supply, a high total inventory in the breeding end, weak market demand, and strong alternative consumption [2]. - Technical analysis: The futures price has fallen below the 12,000 mark and is below the moving - average system. It is recommended to short lightly on rallies, with support at 11,700 and resistance at 12,000 [2]. (2) Soybean Meal - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of soybean meal has continued to rise. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, the cost of imported soybeans has increased, the downstream feed demand is in the peak season, and the oil mills have the intention to support prices [3]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 2,960 and resistance at 3,020 [3]. (3) Palm Oil - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of palm oil has continued to fall. The production in Malaysia and Indonesia has increased, the export growth has narrowed, the domestic inventory has accumulated, and the B50 biodiesel plan in Indonesia is uncertain [5]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 8,758 and resistance at 8,900 [5]. (4) Cotton - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of cotton has adjusted slightly after rising first. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, but the ICE cotton futures price has fallen back. The domestic Xinjiang production area has had adverse weather, and the demand side has stable spinning mill start - up [7]. - Technical analysis: The contract has broken through the 40 - day moving average upward, and it is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 13,530 and resistance at 13,700 [7]. (5) Apple - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of apples has risen strongly. The expected output of new apples this year has decreased, the overall quality has declined, and the high - quality fruit is scarce. The market is worried about post - harvest storage quality and deliverable supply [9]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the moving - average system, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 9,100 and resistance at 9,300 [9]. (6) Corn - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of corn has continued to decline in a volatile manner. Sino - US economic and trade relations have improved, which may lead to an increase in imported corn. The new domestic corn supply has increased seasonally, but there is also policy support [11]. - Technical analysis: The contract is below the moving - average system, and it is recommended to short lightly, with support at 2,100 and resistance at 2,120 [11]. (7) Jujube - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of jujubes has continued to fall sharply. New jujubes are about to be listed, and the inventory of old jujubes is high, resulting in sufficient supply [13]. - Technical analysis: The contract has reached a new low in more than three months, and it is recommended to hold short positions, with support at 10,170 and resistance at 10,400 [13]. (8) Egg - Market situation: The main 2512 contract of eggs has fluctuated narrowly after a sharp rise. The weather has cooled, which is conducive to egg storage and transportation. The demand for pickled products and holiday stock - up is expected to boost prices, and the supply - demand relationship is expected to improve [15]. - Technical analysis: The contract is above the 40 - day moving average, and it is recommended to hold light long positions, with support at 3,128 and resistance at 3,184 [15]. (9) Sugar - Market situation: The main 2601 contract of sugar has adjusted downward. The peak period of domestic sugar imports has passed, and the import pressure has decreased. However, the production of beet sugar in the north continues, and the production season of cane sugar is approaching, with an expected increase in production [17]. - Technical analysis: The contract has encountered resistance near the 40 - day moving average, but it is still in a rebound rhythm. It is recommended to hold long positions, with support at 5,468 and resistance at 5,500 [17].