鸡蛋11月报-20251030

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply of eggs is under pressure, and November is a relatively off - season in the second half of the year. Considering the current spot price has fallen to a historical low, the short - term egg price is likely to remain at the current level. If the active culling of laying hens continues, the future supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to continue to be weak without significant improvement, while the pre - Spring Festival contracts of the far - term may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [5][39][40]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In October, the spot price of eggs was weak. The average price in the main producing areas dropped to around 2.7 yuan/jin, and then rebounded slightly after restocking. In the main selling areas, it dropped to around 2.97 yuan/jin and then rebounded to around 3.09 yuan/jin. - In November, the egg futures contracts were also weak. The supply of laying hens in production remained high, and the demand was average after the double festivals, resulting in weak egg prices. The November contract dropped to around 2748 at the lowest [4]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - The supply side is still under pressure, and November is a relatively off - season. Given the current low spot price, the short - term egg price is likely to stay at the current level. If the active culling of laying hens continues, the supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to be weak, while the far - term pre - Spring Festival contracts may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [5]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, considering the weak oscillation of near - term contracts, shorting on rallies can be considered. - For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - In October, the spot price of eggs rebounded. The average price in the main producing areas reached around 2.91 yuan/jin and showed signs of stabilization, while in the main selling areas, it reached around 3.14 yuan/jin and then stabilized. - The October egg futures contracts were strong. Although the peak demand season was average, the significant increase in the spot price led to a rise in the futures price. However, due to the high inventory of laying hens in production, the increase in the futures price was limited [10]. 3.2.2 Fundamental Situation - Supply Side - In September, the national inventory of laying hens in production was 1.368 billion, an increase of 30 million from the previous month and a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than expected. Without considering delayed or concentrated culling, the estimated inventory of laying hens in production from October 2025 to January 2026 is approximately 1.36 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.356 billion, and 1.347 billion respectively. - In October, the proportion of large - sized eggs was 39.33% (low - middle level in the same period over the years), medium - sized eggs was 44.1% (medium level), and small - sized eggs was 16.57% (high - middle level). - The egg - laying rate in October changed little, remaining at a low level in the same period over the years, currently about 91.78%. It is expected to gradually increase as the weather gets colder. - In September, the monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises (accounting for about 50% of the national total) was 39.2 million, a 1.5% month - on - month and 14% year - on - year decrease. The current weekly market price of laying hen chicks in the Chinese market is 2.73 yuan per chick, a decrease of 0.16 yuan per chick from the previous month. - Due to the weak egg price and average peak - season demand, the culling enthusiasm increased, and the culling volume rose. From October 24th, the weekly culling volume of laying hens in the main producing areas was 20.02 million, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week. The average culling age of culled hens in that week was 499 days, the same as the previous week [11][12][14]. - Demand Side - In October, the demand was average, and the seasonal peak was weaker than in previous years. Although the recent demand has rebounded, it is still at a low - middle level in the same period over the years. As of October 25th, the weekly egg sales volume in the national representative selling areas was 7498 tons, a 1.6% increase from the previous week. - From January to September 2025, the total retail sales of social consumer goods were 36.5877 trillion yuan, a 4.5% year - on - year increase. In September, the absolute value of catering revenue was 450.9 billion yuan, a 0.9% year - on - year increase [21]. - Inventory - As of October 17th, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1.04 days, a decrease of 0.01 days from the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.1 days, the same as the previous week [21]. - Cost and Breeding Profit - The current feed cost has changed little and is expected to remain stable in the short term. In October, the corn price was 2242 yuan/ton, and the soybean meal price dropped to 2984 yuan/ton. The current comprehensive feed cost is about 2464 yuan/ton, corresponding to a feed cost of about 2.71 yuan/jin for one jin of eggs. - As of October 23rd, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.22 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.09 yuan/jin from the previous week. On October 24th, the expected profit of laying hen breeding was - 0.51 yuan per hen, a decrease of 2.79 yuan/jin from the previous week [28]. - Substitutes - The vegetable price index continued to rise. On October 26th, the total vegetable price index in Shouguang was 108.23. Although the vegetable price has increased significantly recently, it is at a relatively medium level in the same period over the years. - The pork price fluctuated this month with little overall change. As of October 26th, the national average wholesale price of pork was about 15.17 yuan/kg. The low vegetable price has a weak substitution demand for eggs, and the current low - level fluctuating pork price has a relatively limited substitution demand for eggs [34]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - The supply side is expected to be under pressure in November as the inventory of laying hens in production remains high. The demand in November is in the off - season, and the market performance is average. Considering the current low spot price, the short - term egg price is likely to remain at the current level. - Due to the previous low egg price and market losses, the culling enthusiasm of laying hens has increased. If the active culling continues, the future supply pressure may ease, and the price may strengthen. - In the futures market, the near - term contracts are expected to be weak without significant improvement, while the pre - Spring Festival contracts of the far - term may rebound if the culling of hens remains high [39][40].