东吴证券晨会纪要-20251031

Macro Strategy - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting in October resulted in a 25bps rate cut, with a 10-2 vote, and announced the end of balance sheet reduction on December 1, 2025, aligning with expectations [1] - Powell indicated that there is no preset path for a December rate cut, leading to a hawkish market interpretation, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury yields to rise, while gold and U.S. stocks fell [1] - Looking ahead, if current data trends continue, a December rate cut remains likely, with the Fed expected to implement more cuts in 2026 after a change in leadership [1] Fixed Income - The overall credit expansion across industries is moderate, lacking significant momentum compared to pre-pandemic levels, with structural differentiation remaining the main theme [2] - Industries currently experiencing credit expansion include light manufacturing, electronics, basic chemicals, and public utilities, characterized by stable cash flows and clear policy guidance [2] - Industries facing credit contraction include real estate, food and beverage, beauty care, and home appliances, which require a macroeconomic recovery to boost demand [2] Food and Beverage Industry - The proportion of active equity funds' holdings in the food and beverage sector continued to decline, with a notable decrease in white liquor holdings [3][4] - The active equity fund heavy holdings in food and beverage dropped from 8.16% in Q4 2024 to 4.17% in Q3 2025, reflecting a 1.45 percentage point decrease [3] - Investment recommendations focus on head growth snacks, advantageous chain formats, long-cycle beverage leaders, innovative health products, and recovering dairy and liquor sectors [4] Cleanroom Engineering Industry - Domestic cleanroom engineering leaders are expanding overseas, with international business becoming a new growth point, potentially enjoying higher profit margins [5] - The global mid-to-high-end cleanroom engineering market is concentrated, with high entry barriers due to large investment scales and short project implementation cycles [5] - Investment suggestions include domestic mid-to-high-end cleanroom engineering firms that benefit from capital expenditure expansion and overseas market opportunities [5] Lithium Battery Materials - The lithium battery supply-demand balance is returning, with both production and sales expected to rise significantly in 2026, leading to a revaluation of value [6][7] - The first-tier battery manufacturers are experiencing sustained profitability, while second-tier manufacturers are reaching a profitability turning point [6] - Investment recommendations include leading material companies and those benefiting from price rebounds in lithium carbonate [6][7] Company-Specific Reports - Yifeng Pharmacy reported a revenue of 17.286 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.39%, with a net profit of 1.225 billion yuan, up 10.27% [10] - Yutong Heavy Industry's revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 2.391 billion yuan, down 4.58%, but net profit increased by 43.16% [11] - Huayu Automotive's revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is 173.1 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 7.1 billion yuan, reflecting a growth trajectory [12]