综合晨报：国家领导人在韩国釜山同美国总统特朗普举行会晤-20251031

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information regarding industry investment ratings is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The meeting between Chinese and US leaders has led to short - term alleviation of trade tensions, which has had an impact on various markets. For example, the US will cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, and the 24% equivalent tariff will be suspended for one year. This has affected market risk preferences and asset prices [17][20]. - Different industries have different market trends and investment outlooks. For instance, the gold market is in a short - term shock stage; the US stock market is volatile during the earnings season but generally bullish; the steel market is expected to fluctuate; and the industrial silicon market is suitable for bottom - fishing long positions [14][25][33]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The European Central Bank maintains interest rates unchanged. Trump's indication to conduct nuclear weapon tests and the less - than - expected reduction of the fentanyl tariff have increased risk aversion, causing the gold price to rebound above the $4000 mark. The gold market is in a short - term shock stage [13][14]. - Investment advice: The short - term gold price will fluctuate around the $4000 mark [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged. The meeting between Chinese and US leaders eases trade tensions in the short term, leading to a shock in market risk preferences and a rebound in the US dollar index [15][18]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will rebound in the short term [19]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The results of the Sino - US economic and trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur exceed expectations. Although the market opened high and closed low due to the news of the leaders' meeting, the Hong Kong stock market rose sharply at the end of the session, and the A - share market may also recover [20][21]. - Investment advice: Allocate various stock indices evenly [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - During the earnings season, the US stock market is volatile. Although companies such as Apple, Amazon, and Meta have different performance and capital expenditure plans, the AI industry remains highly prosperous, and the technology sector still dominates the market [23][24][25]. - Investment advice: The US stock market is volatile during the earnings season but should be treated with a generally bullish attitude [25]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The cancellation of the "fentanyl tariff" and the central bank's reverse repurchase operation have an impact on the bond market. The bond market is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside space is limited, and long positions need to be taken with rhythm and odds in mind [26][27]. - Investment advice: The bond market risk is small in the near term, with a slightly bullish shock, but the upside space is limited. Long positions should be taken with rhythm and odds considered [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China may resume purchasing US soybeans, but there are still doubts about import tariffs and procurement forms. The CBOT soybean price has risen, and the domestic soybean meal price is relatively weaker than the external market [29]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the actual purchase situation of US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal price is expected to remain weaker than the external market [29]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The import cost of palm oil in South China is stable. The oil market rebounded slightly. The market is waiting for October data. It is expected to accumulate inventory in October and enter the production - reduction season in November. There may be opportunities for bottom - fishing long positions [30]. - Investment advice: Wait for October data and look for opportunities to go long at low prices [30]. 3.2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of five major steel products decreased week - on - week, but the inventory pressure is still high. After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the steel price rose first and then fell back. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term [33]. - Investment advice: Treat the steel price with a shock mindset in the near term [34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn deep - processing enterprises have increased their consumption of corn, and the theoretical profitability of starch and starch - sugar enterprises has improved. The 11 - contract CS - C is expected to strengthen, and the 01 - contract rice - flour price difference may also recover [35]. - Investment advice: The 01 - contract rice - flour price difference may recover, similar to the 11 - contract [36]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processing corn has increased, and the inventory days of feed enterprises have decreased. The spot and futures prices are in a weak shock. In November, pay attention to the wheat auction policy. Short - term investment is recommended to wait and see [39]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term. Do not easily short or go long [39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The price of jujube in Xinjiang has been adjusted slightly. The futures price has fallen. The purchase enthusiasm of buyers has decreased, and the price game between producers and buyers continues. It is recommended to wait and see [40][41]. - Investment advice: Wait and see. Pay attention to the price game and purchase progress in the production area [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The coastal daily consumption has decreased seasonally, and the port coal price has weakened. It is expected to decline slightly in 1 - 2 weeks but remain strong in the fourth quarter [43]. - Investment advice: The steam coal price is expected to decline slightly in 1 - 2 weeks and remain strong in the fourth quarter [43]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The performance of Australian iron ore enterprises is good. The iron ore market is in a weak shock, but the price is relatively firm due to long - term contract negotiations. The iron production is expected to decline slightly in November, and the price will continue to fluctuate [44]. - Investment advice: The iron production is expected to decline slightly in November, and the price will continue to fluctuate [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - India's sugar production situation is stable, and the crushing season has started ahead of schedule. Brazil's sugar production data is expected to change. The external sugar market is weak, and the domestic sugar market is expected to fluctuate [48][49]. - Investment advice: The domestic sugar market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Pay attention to the National Sugar Conference for policy information [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - Heavy pollution weather warnings in Hebei have affected the production of an alumina enterprise. The alumina price is expected to continue to be weak [50]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [51]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Longi Green Energy's performance has declined. The polysilicon price has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased. The terminal demand has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on long positions [52][54]. - Investment advice: Take profit on long positions as the fundamental influence may increase [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Hesheng Silicon Industry turned a profit in Q3 but still had a loss in the first three quarters. The production in the south is expected to decrease, and the inventory has decreased. It is suitable to go long at low prices [55]. - Investment advice: It is more cost - effective to go long on industrial silicon at low prices [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The production of zinc and lead concentrates of Jinhui Co., Ltd. has increased. The LME lead inventory has decreased, and the domestic lead market has a high delivery risk. The lead price is expected to be strong in the short term [57][58]. - Investment advice: Be cautious when going long on lead in the short term. Consider positive spreads for arbitrage [59]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The production of zinc and lead concentrates of Jinhui Co., Ltd. has increased. An Australian mine accident has occurred. The LME zinc price may have a short - term correction. The domestic zinc market has a supply - demand imbalance. It is recommended to pay attention to positive spreads for arbitrage [60][63]. - Investment advice: Wait and see in the short term for single - side trading. Pay attention to medium - term positive spreads for arbitrage [63]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The price of lithium carbonate has stabilized and rebounded, and the inventory has decreased. The demand in the energy storage field is strong. It is recommended to operate within a range in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities in the medium term [64]. - Investment advice: Operate within a range in the short term and consider short - selling opportunities after the demand peaks in the medium term [64]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - New Gold is expected to meet its annual production target. The copper market is affected by macro and fundamental factors. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to buy on dips [65][68]. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Buy on dips as a medium - term strategy [68]. 3.2.17 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory has increased. The Sino - US meeting has eased trade concerns. The nickel market has supply - demand contradictions. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider options strategies [69][71]. - Investment advice: Consider going long on nickel at low prices and options strategies for speculative trading [71]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory has increased. The natural gas price is hovering around $4/MMBtu. The market is expected to rise first and then fall [72]. - Investment advice: Wait and see [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The caustic soda market in Shandong is stable. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is limited. It is recommended to short on rallies [74][77]. - Investment advice: Short on rallies for caustic soda in the short term, but be cautious [77]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The terminal operating rate and shipment in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have increased. The PTA market is affected by supply - side expectations. The price is expected to adjust in a shock [78]. - Investment advice: The PTA price will adjust in a shock in the short term [79]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The urea enterprise inventory has decreased. The market is expected to fluctuate after the price rebounds [80]. - Investment advice: The urea price is expected to fluctuate after rebounding to around 1650 yuan/ton [81]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - The methanol market is affected by high inventory and weak downstream demand. It is recommended to hold short positions and add short positions on rallies [83][84]. - Investment advice: Hold short positions on methanol. Add short positions on rallies with a stop - profit target of around 2150 yuan/ton [84]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The pulp price is stable. The market is expected to have limited upside space [85][86]. - Investment advice: The pulp price has limited upside space [86]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC price has rebounded slightly, but the fundamentals are still weak. It is expected to fluctuate at a low level [87][88]. - Investment advice: The PVC market will fluctuate at a low level due to weak fundamentals [88]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The carbon emissions trading price has increased slightly. The market is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [89]. - Investment advice: The CEA price will fluctuate widely in the short term [90]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda ash factory inventory has increased slightly. The price is expected to have limited downside space, depending on coal prices and new capacity investment [91]. - Investment advice: The downside space of soda ash depends on coal prices and new capacity investment [91]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float glass factory inventory has decreased slightly. The market is affected by supply - demand and market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [92][93]. - Investment advice: Wait and see as the float glass market is in a long - short game [93].