Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for oil prices is not overly bearish. Maintain a range - trading strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently suggest short - term waiting and observing to see if OPEC's exports decline when oil prices fall [2]. - For methanol, with high port inventories, increasing supply, and weakening demand, the high - inventory issue may lead to further price drops. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Regarding urea, the supply and demand are both increasing, but the market is in a relatively loose pattern. There is limited upward momentum, and the price downside is also restricted. Pay attention to price rebounds due to short - term demand improvements [6]. - For rubber, the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the domestic supply is strong while demand is weak, and the export outlook is poor. There is a risk of continuous inventory accumulation. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [12][13]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the prices are falling, but the high - level port inventory of styrene is being reduced, and the price may stop falling temporarily [15][16]. - For polyethylene, the price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted, and the overall inventory is being reduced [18][19]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus suppresses the market [20][22]. - For PX, with high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to reduce continuously. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - For PTA, there is a short - term inventory build - up, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see due to potential negative feedback risks [25][26]. - For ethylene glycol, there is a high supply, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [27][28]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Data: INE main crude oil futures closed down 0.30 yuan/barrel, a 0.07% decline, at 458.90 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 40.00 yuan/ton, a 1.43% decline, at 2751.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 20.00 yuan/ton, a 0.62% increase, at 3255.00 yuan/ton [6]. - Inventory Data: US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 6.86 million barrels to 415.97 million barrels, a 1.62% decline; SPR increased by 0.53 million barrels to 409.10 million barrels, a 0.13% increase; gasoline inventories decreased by 5.94 million barrels to 210.74 million barrels, a 2.74% decline; diesel inventories decreased by 3.36 million barrels to 112.19 million barrels, a 2.91% decline; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.13 million barrels to 21.80 million barrels, a 0.58% decline; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.51 million barrels to 41.42 million barrels, a 3.52% decline [7]. Methanol - Market Data: The price in Taicang decreased by 20 yuan, prices in Inner Mongolia and southern Shandong remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 49 yuan, reporting 2208 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 18. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 12, reporting - 76 [2]. - Strategy: The port price is falling rapidly, and the inventory is high and difficult to reduce. Supply is increasing while demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Urea - Market Data: The spot price in Shandong remained flat, that in Henan remained stable, and that in Hubei decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market decreased by 17 yuan, reporting 1627 yuan, with a basis of - 57. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 5, reporting - 78 [5]. - Strategy: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the downstream demand is following up. The market is in a relatively loose pattern. Pay attention to price rebounds due to short - term demand improvements [6]. Rubber - Market Data: The stock index and industrial products declined, and the rubber price also followed suit. The long and short sides have different views. As of October 30, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 65.33%, up 0.04 percentage points from last week and 3.23 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.69%, up 0.20 percentage points from last week and down 4.27 percentage points from the same period last year. As of October 26, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 103.89 tons, a 1% decline; the total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 63.9 tons, a 0.3% decline; the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 40 tons, a 2% decline; the inventory in Qingdao was 42.41 (- 0.34) tons [10]. - Strategy: The rubber price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading and partially build positions for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. PVC - Market Data: The PVC01 contract decreased by 9 yuan, reporting 4766 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4660 (+ 40) yuan/ton, with a basis of - 106 (+ 49) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 284 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 76.6%, a 0.1% decline; the operating rate of the calcium carbide method was 74.4%, a 0.3% decline; the operating rate of the ethylene method was 81.6%, a 0.4% increase. The downstream operating rate was 49.9%, a 1.3% increase. The factory inventory was 33.4 tons (- 2.7), and the social inventory was 103.5 tons (+ 0.1) [11]. - Strategy: The enterprise's comprehensive profit is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export outlook is poor in the fourth quarter. It is advisable to consider short - selling on rallies in the medium term [12][13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Data: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene are both falling. The BZN spread is at a relatively low level, and the port inventory of styrene is decreasing significantly [15][16]. - Strategy: The high - level port inventory of styrene is being reduced, and the price may stop falling temporarily [16]. Polyethylene - Market Data: The main - contract closing price was 6968 yuan/ton, a 41 - yuan decline. The spot price was 6990 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decline. The basis was 22 yuan/ton, a 21 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 81.28%, a 0.56% decline. The production enterprise inventory was 51.46 tons, a 1.49 - ton decline; the trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.04 - ton decline. The downstream average operating rate was 45.75%, an 0.83% increase. The LL1 - 5 spread was - 62 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan increase [18]. - Strategy: The price may remain in a low - level oscillation. The cost - driven downward trend has shifted, and the overall inventory is being reduced [19]. Polypropylene - Market Data: The main - contract closing price was 6651 yuan/ton, a 34 - yuan decline. The spot price was 6630 yuan/ton, a 20 - yuan decline. The basis was - 21 yuan/ton, a 14 - yuan increase. The upstream operating rate was 75.17%, a 0.16% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 63.85 tons, a 4.02 - ton decline; the trader inventory was 22.00 tons, a 1.86 - ton decline; the port inventory was 6.68 tons, a 0.11 - ton decline. The downstream average operating rate was 52.37%, a 0.52% increase. The LL - PP spread was 317 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease [20][21]. - Strategy: Under the background of weak supply and demand and high inventory pressure, the cost - side supply surplus suppresses the market [22]. PX - Market Data: The PX01 contract decreased by 64 yuan, reporting 6588 yuan. The PX CFR decreased by 1 dollar, reporting 817 dollars. The basis was 85 yuan (+ 58), and the 1 - 3 spread was - 4 yuan (+ 14). The Chinese load was 85.9%, a 1% increase; the Asian load was 78.5%, a 0.5% increase. The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The inventory at the end of September was 402.6 tons, a 10.8 - ton increase from the previous month [24]. - Strategy: With high load and low downstream PTA load, the inventory is difficult to reduce continuously. It is recommended to wait and see [25]. PTA - Market Data: The PTA01 contract decreased by 66 yuan, reporting 4570 yuan. The East China spot price remained flat, reporting 4535 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (+ 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 8). The PTA load was 78%, a 0.8% decline. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on October 24 was 220.1 tons, a 2.5 - ton increase. The spot processing fee increased by 4 yuan to 157 yuan, and the futures - market processing fee decreased by 24 yuan to 248 yuan [25]. - Strategy: There is a short - term inventory build - up, and the processing fee is difficult to expand. It is recommended to wait and see due to potential negative feedback risks [26]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Data: The EG01 contract decreased by 68 yuan, reporting 4032 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 5 yuan, reporting 4147 yuan. The basis was 78 yuan (+ 5), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 83 yuan (- 8). The supply - side load was 76.2%, a 2.9% increase. The downstream load was 91.7%, a 0.3% increase. The import arrival forecast was 19.8 tons, and the East China departure on October 29 was 1 ton. The port inventory was 52.3 tons, a 5.6 - ton decline [27]. - Strategy: There is a high supply, and the inventory is expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [28].
能源化工日报-20251031
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-31 01:11