RU、NR、BR月报-20251031

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The rubber sector has sufficient supply and strong expectations for consumption growth. The state of ample natural rubber supply and strong consumption growth expectations continues compared to the September report. On the supply side, Thai rubber prices are resilient but show a widening year - on - year decline, and the cup - to - cup price difference indicates sufficient supply. On the consumption side, global auto sales and domestic tire production show marginal increases. In terms of expectations, key macro data is strengthening [5][6]. - In October, synthetic rubber was extremely weak, and the BR - RU spread widened. The capacity utilization rate of domestic butadiene rubber increased, and the cumulative production in the past 12 months also increased, indicating sufficient supply [7]. - The fundamentals of the rubber sector are relatively strong [8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Supply Global Data - Climate - Analyzed the ENSO index and its impact on RU unilateral, including ENSO index, its indexation for RU unilateral, and the influence on RU spot and futures prices. Also studied the impact of El Niño and Southern Oscillation on the spreads of smoke - sheet - RU and BR - RU [17][25][37]. Global Data - Commodity Valuation - Studied the relationship between crude oil, gold prices and rubber prices, including the impact of the prices of crude oil, Brent crude oil, and gold on RU unilateral, BR - RU spread, and smoke - sheet - RU spread [45]. 2. Micro Supply Global Data - Absolute Price - Presented the absolute prices of basic rubber raw materials in Thailand, Malaysia, Yunnan, and Hainan, including the latest, last - month, and last - year prices, as well as month - on - month and year - on - year changes [65]. Overseas Data - ANRPC Rubber Alliance Natural Rubber Industry: Analyzed the total production and total export volume of ANRPC natural rubber and their impacts on the BR - RU spread [68][72]. - Thai Natural Rubber Industry: Studied various aspects such as rainfall, glue and cup - rubber prices, the spread between smoke - sheet rubber and standard rubber, the inventory and shipment of rubber products, and the export of smoke - sheet rubber, and their impacts on RU unilateral, smoke - sheet - RU spread, and BR - RU spread [78][93][110][120]. - Vietnamese Natural Rubber Industry: Analyzed the natural rubber production in Vietnam and its impact on the 3L - RU spread [130]. Domestic Data - Not detailed in the summary part of the given content, but includes aspects such as China's rubber imports, production, apparent consumption, domestic glue products, and the supply of butadiene and butadiene rubber [29]. 3. Trade Circulation Global Data - Analyzed the balance sheets of the six major rubber - producing countries in Southeast Asia [45]. Overseas Data - Studied international trade, Japanese rubber inventory, Malaysian natural rubber retail inventory, Southeast Asian standard rubber processing profit, and overseas rubber and plastic machinery [46].