Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, influenced by the hawkish stance of Fed Chair Powell, the US dollar index strengthened, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, economic growth accelerated, and the meeting between Chinese and US leaders and a series of agreements reached boosted domestic market optimism. Policy stimulus expectations increased after the Fourth Plenary Session of the CPC, which helped lift domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and Sino - US trade negotiations, with short - term upward macro - drivers strengthening. Attention should be paid to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and the implementation of domestic incremental policies [3][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Overall Situation: Overseas, Fed Chair Powell's hawkish attitude led to a stronger US dollar index and cooled global risk appetite. Domestically, economic growth accelerated, the Sino - US meeting boosted optimism, and policy stimulus expectations increased. The market focused on domestic policies and Sino - US trade talks, with short - term upward macro - drivers strengthening [3]. - Asset Recommendations: Stock indices were short - term oscillating and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions recommended. Treasury bonds were short - term oscillating, and cautious observation was advised. In the commodity sector, black metals were short - term oscillating and rebounding, with short - term cautious long positions; non - ferrous metals were short - term oscillating and rebounding, with short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals were short - term oscillating, with cautious long positions; precious metals were short - term in a high - level correction, and cautious observation was recommended [3]. Stock Indices - Market Performance: Domestic stocks fell sharply due to the drag of semiconductor components, military, and gaming sectors. However, economic growth acceleration, the Sino - US meeting, and policy stimulus expectations strengthened short - term upward macro - drivers. Short - term market sentiment subsided, leading to a short - term correction. Short - term cautious long positions were recommended [4]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: The precious metals market rose on Thursday night. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed at 920.40 yuan/gram, up 1.11%; the main contract of Shanghai silver closed at 11448 yuan/kg, up 1.47%. Spot gold rebounded and closed up 2.39% at 4024.49 US dollars/ounce. - Outlook: Short - term oscillation, with the medium - to - long - term upward pattern unchanged. Short - term observation was recommended, and medium - to - long - term buying on dips was advised [4]. Black Metals - Steel: On Thursday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets continued a small - scale rebound. The trading volume was low. Sino - US trade conflicts eased, with some tariffs cancelled and restrictions postponed. Steel inventories continued to decline, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products increased by 23.69 tons month - on - month. Supply might decline as steel mill profits were compressed and environmental restrictions were imposed in Hebei. The market was mainly driven by macro - logic, and prices were expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [5][6]. - Iron Ore: On Thursday, the spot price of iron ore fell slightly, while the futures price continued to be strong. The recent rebound was due to strong macro - expectations and a significant decline in arrivals. With compressed steel mill profits, hot metal production was below 240 tons and might decline further. Steel mills mainly made rigid - demand replenishments. The price was expected to be in a short - term range - bound oscillation [6]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Thursday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The futures price of silicon manganese rebounded slightly, and that of silicon iron fell slightly. The demand for ferroalloys was acceptable as the production of five major steel products increased slightly. The supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly. The prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were expected to continue range - bound oscillations [7]. - Soda Ash: On Thursday, the main contract of soda ash oscillated within a range. Supply increased in the short term as some plants resumed production, and there were capacity expansion plans in the fourth quarter. Demand increased slightly. The industry lacked clear policy - following motivation, and supply pressure remained. A bearish view was recommended in the medium - to - long - term [8]. - Glass: On Thursday, the main contract of glass oscillated within a range. Supply remained stable, and demand in the peak season was weak. The inventory of float glass was relatively high. The anti - involution policy provided some support, and the price was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, with attention paid to the demand during the year - end peak construction season [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP, but Powell's remarks on a December rate cut were hawkish. US copper inventories were at a historical high, restricting import demand. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine tightened the global supply, but the possible restart of a Panamanian copper mine was a risk. Domestic refined copper de - stocking was less than expected. LME's restriction on large near - month positions limited the upside of copper prices, and short - term high - level oscillations were expected [9]. - Aluminum: On Thursday, aluminum prices fell slightly. The Fed's hawkish stance and the fading of market optimism after the Sino - US meeting led to a decline in risk assets. The falling LME aluminum inventory supported the LME 3 - month aluminum price, which was expected to drive up the Shanghai aluminum price, but the increase in Shanghai aluminum would be smaller due to poor domestic fundamentals [9]. - Tin: After the maintenance of a large Yunnan smelter ended, the smelting start - up rate increased by 21.3% to 71.61%. The supply of tin ore was tight as Indonesia cracked down on illegal mining and adjusted the mining approval cycle. High prices suppressed demand, but some downstream enterprises made small - scale rigid - demand replenishments, and inventory decreased. Tin prices were expected to remain in high - level oscillations [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: On Thursday, the main contract of lithium carbonate rose 1.19%. Supply and demand both increased, with weekly production hitting new highs and strong demand in the peak season. Social inventory decreased slightly, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased rapidly. Short - term oscillation and a slightly stronger trend were expected, but attention should be paid to the upside hedging pressure [11]. - Industrial Silicon: On Thursday, the main contract of industrial silicon rose 0.94%. Demand was relatively stable, and social inventory increased slightly at a high level. With cost support from大厂 cash - flow costs and rising coal prices, the market was expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [11]. - Polysilicon: On Thursday, the main contract of polysilicon fell 0.15%. The supply was high, and demand was low. Attention should be paid to the strengthening of policy expectations such as state purchases and the support of spot prices [12]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Oil prices changed little for two consecutive days. The market was waiting to see the impact of US sanctions on Russian producers and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations. The Fed's stance reduced the expectation of a December rate cut, putting pressure on oil prices. Attention should be paid to OPEC's new production policy on Sunday, and oil prices faced long - term pressure [13]. - Asphalt: The cost support for asphalt weakened as oil price rebounds stalled, and the futures price fell slightly. Although inventory decreased recently, the de - stocking speed would slow down as the demand off - season approached. The supply pressure decreased temporarily, but attention should be paid to the rebound space of oil prices driven by Russian oil sanctions, and the asphalt market lacked strong upward drivers [13]. - PX: Crude oil prices were stable, and the tight supply of PX provided cost support. PX prices oscillated. Although PX prices decreased with the high - start of PTA, there was still some demand support. The PXN spread and the PX outer - market price rebounded slightly. PX was likely to follow crude oil fluctuations, with a relatively high bearish risk [14]. - PTA: The meeting of leading manufacturers did not reach a substantial anti - involution agreement. The spot basis was - 70, with a possible slight decline in the future. Some winter clothing orders were booming, and downstream inventory decreased. The PTA inventory accumulation speed slowed down, but the processing fee was low. The implementation of anti - involution policies and cost logic were the main drivers, and the price was expected to be short - term oscillating with high bearish pressure in the future [14]. - Ethylene Glycol: Port inventory decreased slightly to 52.3 tons. The price followed the stalled oil price rebound and fell slightly. Downstream inventory decreased, and feedstock purchases increased. The price tested the lower support. Further upward movement required continuous de - stocking, and the cost - boosting factor might weaken, with short - term oscillations expected [15][16]. - Short - Fiber: Short - fiber prices oscillated with the polyester sector in the short term but faced high pressure in the future. Terminal orders declined seasonally, and short - fiber production decreased in some areas, with inventory accumulating slightly. Further de - stocking depended on whether terminal orders could continue to rise counter - seasonally, and the upside space was limited. Medium - term short positions were recommended [16]. - Methanol: The domestic methanol market declined, and port spot prices oscillated at a low level. Supply pressure was expected to increase as some plants would restart and imported goods continued to arrive. Demand was weak, and inventory was high. The price was expected to oscillate in the short term [17]. - PP: The market quotations mostly oscillated. The supply was sufficient, and demand improved due to "Double Eleven" stocking. Inventory decreased slightly, and the price might have a short - term recovery [17]. - LLDPE: The price of LLDPE fluctuated slightly. Supply was expected to increase, and industrial inventory decreased. Demand was expected to improve as the downstream PE industry's start - up rate might increase slightly, and the greenhouse film production was in the peak season. The price was expected to recover in the short term, but the supply - surplus situation remained, and the rebound was weak [18]. - Urea: The urea market was generally weak, but some low - end quotations had good transactions. Supply was abundant, and demand from agriculture and industry was stable, with some reserve demand likely to be released. Enterprise inventory increased slightly, and port inventory decreased significantly. The price was expected to oscillate at a low level [18]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The CBOT January soybean contract rose 1.14% to 1107.75. US soybean exports had decreased by 45% year - on - year so far this crop year. The Sino - US trade consensus might open the agricultural product trade window, and US soybeans were expected to strengthen. However, the lack of USDA reports and stable South American weather provided little fundamental guidance [19][20]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Domestic soybean arrivals and inventories were high, and oil mills maintained high - level production, resulting in sufficient soybean meal supply. The improvement of Sino - US agricultural trade relations reduced the risk of soybean shortages, and inventory accumulation might limit the upside of soybean meal prices [20]. - Palm Oil: The BMD crude palm oil futures rebounded, supported by technical buying, the rise of Dalian soybean oil, and the weakening of the ringgit. Southeast Asian palm oil inventories were low, and the production season had entered a decline cycle. The details and progress of Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy were uncertain. After continuous declines, palm oil was in a technically oversold state, and short - selling should be cautious [20]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: Soybean oil supply was sufficient, and inventory was high. In the consumption peak season, it had a cost - performance advantage, and the spot basis was strong. The price difference between soybean oil and palm oil continued to narrow. Rapeseed oil inventory decreased, but the possible supply from Australia and Russia and the Sino - Canadian trade dialogue put pressure on rapeseed oil prices [21]. - Corn: The price of corn in the northern ports continued to decline slightly, and the price in the production areas changed little. The Sino - US trade negotiations affected the market, and traders' intention to build inventory was weak. The market price was close to the planting cost, and high - quality corn was scarce. As the temperature dropped, farmers' reluctance to sell might slow down the price decline [21]. - Hogs: The national average price of live hogs was 12.63 yuan/kg, down 0.04 yuan/kg. After the continuous rise in hog prices, slaughterhouses' procurement was normal, but the planned volume was limited. The strong price difference between fat and standard hogs increased the enthusiasm for second - fattening and farmers' reluctance to sell. Hog prices had stabilized in the short term, but the supply - demand mismatch pressure in November was high, and there was little room for a significant rebound [21].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20251031
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-10-31 01:22