Guoxin Securities·2025-10-31 01:54Investment Rating - The investment rating for Postal Savings Bank (601658.SH) is "Outperform the Market" [5][3]. Core Views - The bank's revenue and profit continue to show positive growth, with operating income reaching 265.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.8%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 76.6 billion yuan, up 1.0% year-on-year [1]. - The bank's total assets grew by 11.1% year-on-year to 18.6 trillion yuan, with corporate loans increasing by 17.9% due to enhanced credit allocation in advanced manufacturing, green finance, technology finance, and inclusive finance [1]. - The net interest margin decreased to 1.68%, down 21 basis points year-on-year, while non-interest income grew significantly, with net fee income increasing by 11.5% to 23.1 billion yuan [2]. - Asset quality pressures are evident, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.94%, up 0.04 percentage points from the beginning of the year [2]. Financial Forecasts - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 is 86.6 billion, 87.2 billion, and 88.3 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 0.7%, and 1.2% respectively [3][4]. - The diluted EPS is projected to be 0.67 yuan for 2025, with a corresponding PE ratio of 8.9x [3][4]. - The bank's core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio is expected to be 10.65% by the end of Q3 2025, an increase of 1.09 percentage points from the beginning of the year [1].