中国固定收益研究：停止缩表终官宣，12月降息存分歧

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report - Although there are strong differences within the Federal Reserve, and the threshold for a 12 - month interest rate cut is significantly raised, the three interest rate cuts implied by the September dot - plot within the year are still the benchmark scenario, and there is still a high possibility of an interest rate cut in December [2][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to understand "12 - month interest rate cut is far from a certainty"? - Internal division in the Fed: After recent interest rate cuts, the policy rate has entered the estimated neutral interest rate range (2.6% - 3.9%). There is a growing call within the Fed to "wait at least one cycle" to observe the effects of previous policies. There are significant differences among Fed officials in economic forecasts and risk aversion, resulting in strong division. There were two - way dissenting votes at this meeting, and 9 officials in the September dot - plot had relatively high thresholds for further collective compromise in December [2] - Uncertainty of data suspension: Due to government data suspension, the Fed's information acquisition is affected, and high data uncertainty is a reason for cautious and postponed actions [2] - Stable high - frequency employment data: High - frequency employment data is stable, showing a "very gradual cooling," providing some "comfort" for policymakers. However, the meeting statement indicates that the risk of employment decline has increased in recent months [2] - Optimistic attitude towards inflation: Tariffs are the main driver of current commodity inflation, with a mild impact. Excluding tariffs, core PCE inflation is expected to be between 2.3% - 2.4%, close to the 2% target. Housing inflation has continued to decline, and economic and employment market slowdowns help service inflation decline [2] What details are worth noting about the Fed's halt to balance - sheet reduction? - Stopping balance - sheet reduction: When the bank reserve scale is slightly higher than the "sufficient reserve" level, balance - sheet reduction should stop. Recent money - market signals indicate that the reserve level has reached this standard [2] - Reshaping the portfolio structure: After the balance - sheet reduction officially ends on December 1, the principal of the Fed's matured Treasury bonds will be rolled over through auctions, and the principal of MBS will be reinvested in short - term Treasury bonds in the secondary market, adjusting the balance - sheet structure to be mainly Treasury bonds [2] - Future balance - sheet expansion: After freezing the scale, non - reserve liabilities will cause the reserve balance to decline. In the future, the reserve balance needs to gradually increase again, and the balance - sheet structure will be adjusted to "closer to the duration distribution of the Treasury market" [6] How does the Fed view other current economic hotspots? - Discrepancy between strong consumption and weak employment: Strong consumption expenditure is the main support for moderate economic expansion, but the labor market has cooled significantly. This is mainly due to the K - shaped consumption structure. High - income groups increase spending, while low - income groups struggle. The Fed Chair's attitude towards whether the stock - market rise drives the K - shaped consumption structure is relatively neutral [6] - AI boom: AI investment is an important driving force for economic growth, but consumption expenditure is the core support. The overall economy has resilience even if AI investment contracts. Attention should be paid to the risk of AI - related layoffs, but it is not currently reflected in employment data. AI investment is insensitive to interest rates, and the current situation is different from the 1990s dot - com bubble [6] - Rising sub - prime credit default rate: The rising sub - prime credit default rate has not yet evolved into a widespread credit risk, but the Fed will continue to closely monitor it to ensure the risk does not expand [6]