国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20251031

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - Nickel: The price shows a narrow - range oscillation due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and nickel ore concerns [2][4]. - Stainless steel: There is limited downward potential, but it lacks upward driving forces [2][4]. - Lithium carbonate: After the absolute price rises, attention should be paid to the expected switch between the Q1 off - season and lithium mine resumption [2][7]. - Industrial silicon: Attention should be paid to the subsequent warehouse receipt registration situation [2]. - Polysilicon: It is in a high - level oscillation state [2][10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 120,980 yuan, down 560 yuan compared to T - 1; the closing price of stainless steel's main contract was 12,725 yuan, down 80 yuan compared to T - 1. The trading volume and other data of both also showed corresponding changes [4]. - Macro and Industry News: Indonesian forestry workgroups took over a nickel mining area, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel ore output by about 600 metal tons. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and relevant regulations on RKAB approval were issued. Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" [4][5][6]. - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless steel have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 81,840 yuan, up 100 yuan compared to T - 1; the closing price of the 2601 contract was 83,400 yuan, up 500 yuan compared to T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data [7]. - Macro and Industry News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. This week's lithium carbonate production decreased by 228 tons compared to last week, and the industry inventory decreased by 3008 tons. An auction of lithium spodumene concentrate was completed, and the G7 planned to form a key mineral production alliance [8][9]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9]. Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 54,950 yuan, down 40 yuan compared to T - 1. There were also changes in trading volume, open interest, and other data of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. The prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products also showed corresponding changes [10]. - Macro and Industry News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the list of enterprises meeting the "Photovoltaic Manufacturing Industry Standard Conditions", with 129 enterprises in total [10]. - Trend Intensity: Both industrial silicon and polysilicon have a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [12].