能源化策略报：聚酯终端需求依旧环?向好，芳烃供给端压?仍较

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The overall energy and chemical market is under pressure from supply and geopolitical factors. Crude oil faces supply pressure and geopolitical risks, and most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate. The polyester terminal demand is improving, but the supply side of chemicals is a key negative factor. The market's response to the Sino - US summit is "buy on the rumor, sell on the news," and the OPEC+ is likely to continue to increase production at the upcoming meeting. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Logic - The polyester chain's demand side is improving, with better terminal fabric shipments, inventory reduction, and improved nominal cash flow. However, the supply side of chemicals is a major negative factor. The meeting of the PTA and bottle - chip leading enterprises on the 30th had no substantial policies, which led to a decline in the day - trading session. [3] 3.2 Variety Analysis 3.2.1 Crude Oil - View: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical risks still exist. - Main Logic: The Sino - US summit results are in line with expectations, but concerns about Russian oil remain. The macro and geopolitical drivers for oil prices are limited. Supply pressure suppresses prices, but geopolitical concerns still support prices to some extent. The price is expected to decline slowly and fluctuate weakly. [7] 3.2.2 Asphalt - View: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price has no support. - Main Logic: OPEC+ may increase production in November, Saudi Arabia reduces the export discount of crude oil to Asia, and the end of the Palestine - Israel conflict and the realization of the positive news from the Sino - US summit lead to a decline in oil prices. The asphalt - fuel oil spread is expected to continue to decline, and the asphalt inventory pressure is large. [7] 3.2.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: With the weakening of crude oil, the fuel oil futures price is weak. - Main Logic: OPEC+ supply increase and falling oil prices lead to a decline in high - sulfur fuel oil prices. Although the Palestine - Israel conflict has ended, the Russia - Ukraine conflict continues to escalate. The demand for fuel oil is still weak. [8] 3.2.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - View: Low - sulfur fuel oil fluctuates with crude oil. - Main Logic: It follows crude oil fluctuations, has low valuation, and faces supply increase and demand decline trends. [10] 3.2.5 Methanol - View: The port inventory pressure still exists, the olefins have declined, and methanol fluctuates lower. - Main Logic: The futures price fluctuates lower. The high port inventory suppresses prices, but there is still low - buying value considering the potential Iranian disturbances in winter. [26] 3.2.6 Urea - View: The market sentiment is pessimistic, and it is under continuous pressure. - Main Logic: The market sentiment is pessimistic due to the lack of export information updates from the nitrogen fertilizer association meeting. [26] 3.2.7 Ethylene Glycol (EG) - View: The coal - based production rate is continuously rising, and the supply - demand pattern deteriorates month - on - month. - Main Logic: The international oil price is weak, the coal - based production rate is high, the supply - demand pattern weakens, and the port inventory accumulates. [18][19] 3.2.8 PX - View: The meeting has no substantial measures, and PX returns to the fundamental pricing logic. - Main Logic: The crude oil price fluctuates and falls. Some PX factories have maintenance, and the supply is temporarily stable. The short - term supply and demand are both strong, and the market gives back the previous emotional premium. [11] 3.2.9 PTA - View: The meeting has no substantial resolution, and PTA processing fees are still under pressure. - Main Logic: The upstream cost fluctuates and falls, the meeting has no substantial production reduction, some devices may restart, and the downstream polyester demand provides some support. [12] 3.2.10 Short - Fiber - View: The meeting has no positive news, the market sentiment turns cold, and polyester staple fiber remains consolidated. - Main Logic: The upstream cost is poor, the meeting has no clear production reduction measures, the supply side has a device restart, and the downstream demand is for rigid replenishment. The inventory is at a healthy level, and the profit has some support. [22][23] 3.2.11 Bottle - Chip - View: The PTA anti - involution meeting has no positive news. - Main Logic: The meeting fails to support the price, the supply - demand is stable, and the absolute price follows the upstream fluctuation, while the processing fee has some support. [24] 3.2.12 Pure Benzene - View: Affected by macro - events, pure benzene fluctuates. - Main Logic: The naphtha price is strong, but the opening of the Shandong - East China arbitrage window and the rumored maintenance of styrene devices suppress the price. [14][15] 3.2.13 Styrene - View: After the macro - disturbance, styrene rises and then falls. - Main Logic: Styrene follows the oil price to rebound, but the rebound is weak due to new production capacity and weak downstream follow - up. [16] 3.2.14 LLDPE - View: Maintenance slightly increases, and LLDPE is viewed within a range. - Main Logic: The macro - situation, oil price, and its own fundamentals limit the upside space, and the short - term price fluctuates within a range. [28] 3.2.15 PP - View: Maintenance is stable, the propane CP price is reduced, and PP is viewed within a range. - Main Logic: The reduction of the propane CP price drags down PP, and its own fundamentals have limited support. [29] 3.2.16 PL - View: The propane CP price is reduced again, and PL is weaker than PP in the short term. - Main Logic: The reduction of the propane CP price and weak downstream demand lead to a decline in PL prices. [30] 3.2.17 PVC - View: Market sentiment cools down, and PVC weakens. - Main Logic: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the PVC fundamentals are under pressure due to increased production, limited downstream demand, and anti - dumping pressure on exports. [31] 3.2.18 Caustic Soda - View: Supply and demand are under pressure, and the futures price is weak. - Main Logic: The macro - sentiment cools down, and the supply is high while the demand is inelastic, leading to inventory accumulation. [32]