从2025Q3季报看利率债基变化：债基2025年Q3季报分析

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report is bullish on the bond market, suggesting that the current bond market has prominent allocation value and recommends investing in 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. [2] 2. Core View of the Report Based on the Q3 2025 quarterly reports of bond funds, the report analyzes the changes in interest rate bond funds, including scale, asset allocation, and investment strategies. It points out that due to factors such as the significant rise in the stock market and regulatory rule impacts in Q3, the bond market deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals, leading to a decline in the quarterly returns of interest rate bond funds. Currently, the bond market has high allocation value, and the bond yields are expected to decline in a volatile manner. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content Changes in Interest Rate Bond Funds in Q3 2025 - Scale and Asset Allocation: As of Q3 2025, the total asset value of interest rate bond funds was 3.1 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.44 trillion yuan from Q2 2025. The bond allocation ratio decreased, while the cash ratio increased slightly. [2] - Heavy - Positioned Bonds: Actively managed interest rate bond funds slightly increased their allocation to Treasury bonds and reduced their allocation to policy - financial bonds. Overall, they reduced their allocation to long - duration bonds, but actively managed funds significantly increased their allocation to Treasury bonds with a maturity of 1 year or less and continued to increase their allocation to 30 - year Treasury bonds. [2] - Yield: The average annualized yield of interest rate bond funds decreased from 3.96% in Q2 2025 to - 1.84% in Q3 2025. Credit bond funds had relatively stronger defensive capabilities. [2] Investment Strategy Changes in Q3 2025 In Q3, the bond market deviated from the capital and economic fundamentals. Due to the significant extension of the duration in Q2, the bond market adjustment in Q3 led to a sharp decline in the quarterly returns of interest rate bond funds. As a result, the duration was shortened, and the scale returned to the level of Q3 2024. [2] Investment Recommendations - Market Outlook: The bond market has prominent allocation value, and the bond yields are expected to decline in a volatile manner. The policy interest rate in Q4 may be cut by 10 - 20BP. [2] - Investment Choices: The top choices for bond market investment are 10Y China Development Bank bonds, 30Y Treasury bonds, and 5Y capital bonds. It is predicted that the yield of 10Y Treasury bonds will return to around 1.65%, the yield of 30Y Treasury bonds will reach 1.9%, and the yield of 5Y large - bank secondary capital bonds will reach 1.9%. [2]