Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report offers a comprehensive analysis of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, and non-ferrous metals. It assesses market trends, fundamental factors, and provides corresponding trading strategies based on the current market situation [20][23][26]. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Investment Logic: On Thursday, the stock index fluctuated again. In the morning, the market was strong, but in the afternoon, it dived and then oscillated downward. Due to investors' profit - taking and concerns about the technology stocks, the short - term stock index will fluctuate again and wait for re - pricing after the quarterly reports [20]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Buy on dips without chasing high prices; Arbitrage: IM\IC long 2512 + short ETF cash - and - carry arbitrage; Options: Bull spread on dips [22]. Treasury Futures - Investment Logic: On Thursday, most treasury futures closed higher. The central bank's net injection of short - term liquidity eased the market's funds. The long - end may catch up in price, and the market should be cautious about chasing the TS contract [23]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Try to go long on the TL contract on dips; Arbitrage: Pay attention to potential cash - and - carry arbitrage opportunities [24]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Investment Logic: Trade relations are improving, which benefits US soybeans. However, the international soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean meal supply has improved, with pressure on prices. Rapeseed meal is expected to fluctuate [26]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Slowly build short positions in far - month contracts; Arbitrage: Try M35 reverse arbitrage; Options: Sell strangle strategy [28]. Sugar - Investment Logic: Internationally, the global sugar production is increasing, and the Brazilian sugar production is expected to be high. The ethanol's support for sugar has weakened, and the international sugar price is bearish. Domestically, the increase in sugar production may be less than expected, and the suspension of some imports may support the price in the short term [30]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: The international sugar price is bearish, and the domestic market may be slightly stronger in the short term. Consider shorting on rallies; Arbitrage: Short US raw sugar and long domestic Zhengzhou sugar; Options: Wait and see [30]. Oilseeds and Oils - Investment Logic: High - frequency data shows that the production and export growth of Malaysian palm oil in October have declined, and it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory slightly. Domestic soybean oil may gradually reduce inventory, and rapeseed oil is gradually de - stocking. The oil market is in a bottom - grinding stage [34]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Consider going long on dips; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [34]. Corn/Corn Starch - Investment Logic: The US corn futures have declined, and the US corn production is at a high level. The supply of Northeast Chinese corn has increased, and the price is weak. The North China corn price has stabilized and rebounded. The 01 contract of corn is expected to fluctuate weakly [36]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Go long on the 12 - contract of US corn on dips, go long on the 01 - contract of Chinese corn lightly, and try to go long on the 05 and 07 - contracts of Chinese corn in the long - term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [36]. Live Pigs - Investment Logic: The overall supply pressure of live pigs still exists, although the scale of enterprise slaughter has decreased, and the number of secondary fattening has increased, which has a certain supporting effect on the price. The pig price is expected to be under pressure [38]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Consider building a small number of short positions; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell strangle strategy [38]. Peanuts - Investment Logic: Peanut prices have stabilized. The supply of imported peanuts has decreased, and the prices of peanut oil and peanut meal are stable. The oil mills have not purchased in large quantities. The 01 - contract of peanuts is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [42]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Try to go long on the 01 and 05 - contracts of peanuts lightly; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the pk601 - P - 7600 option [42]. Eggs - Investment Logic: The number of laying hens is still at a high level, and the demand is average. The egg price is expected to be weak. Recently, the increase in the number of culled chickens and downstream replenishment have led to a slight rebound in the spot price. It is recommended to wait and see [47]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Consider closing out previous short positions and wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [47]. Apples - Investment Logic: The quality of new - season apples is poor, the excellent fruit rate is low, and the cost of making warehouse receipts is high. The market is worried about the short shelf - life of cold - stored apples. The expected low storage volume may support the price, but the upward space is limited [51]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Consider closing out previous long positions and wait and see; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [51]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - Investment Logic: The cotton purchase is at its peak, and the purchase price is stable with a slight increase. The demand has not changed much. The improvement in Sino - US relations may support the Zhengzhou cotton price, which is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger [55]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: The US cotton is expected to fluctuate, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [55]. Black Metals Steel - Investment Logic: The night - trading steel price fluctuated weakly. This week, the steel production recovery accelerated, and the demand continued to recover, with an accelerated inventory reduction. However, there are still pressures from high plate inventory, slow capital release in the fourth quarter, and the fading macro - influence [58]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Maintain range - bound fluctuations; Arbitrage: Consider going long on the hot - rolled coil and short on the rebar spread; Options: Wait and see [59]. Coking Coal and Coke - Investment Logic: The current macro - sentiment is positive, and the coking coal fundamentals are good, but the steel demand is uncertain, which restricts the upward space of raw materials. It is expected to fluctuate in the near future, and it is recommended to wait for dips to go long [61]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait for dips to go long; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [61]. Iron Ore - Investment Logic: The iron ore price fell at night. The supply is at a high level, and the demand is weakening domestically. The iron ore price is expected to be under pressure at a high level [63]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Bearish at a high level; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [64]. Ferroalloys - Investment Logic: The market sentiment has cooled down. The supply and demand pressures of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese still exist. They can continue to be used as short - side configurations in the sector [65]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Continue as short - side configurations; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [66]. Non - Ferrous Metals Precious Metals - Investment Logic: There are both bullish and bearish factors in the precious metals market. The market is expected to enter a high - level shock adjustment period in the short term [69]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver cautiously; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [71]. Copper - Investment Logic: Macro - factors are not favorable, and the supply side of copper mines has more disturbances. The supply is relatively tight, and the consumption is weak. The copper price has a short - term correction [73]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: The short - term copper price corrects slightly, pay attention to support and resistance levels, and go long on dips in the long term; Arbitrage: Hold cross - market cash - and - carry arbitrage and consider cross - period cash - and - carry arbitrage after domestic inventory decline; Options: Wait and see [74]. Alumina - Investment Logic: The supply and demand of alumina are still in significant surplus, but there are expectations of production cuts. The price rebounds slightly at a low level, but there are still pressures on the rebound amplitude [77]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: The price will fluctuate at a low level; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [77]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Investment Logic: The macro - situation is uncertain, but the Sino - US economic and trade consensus is positive. The overseas supply is tight, and the domestic consumption is resilient. The aluminum price is expected to rise after the market sentiment stabilizes [80]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: The aluminum price is expected to rise after the market sentiment stabilizes; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [80]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Investment Logic: The macro - expectations are volatile. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the demand is resilient, and the price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots will maintain a strong shock [85]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: The aluminum alloy price will rise with the aluminum price; Arbitrage: Consider long AD and short AL arbitrage; Options: Wait and see [85]. Zinc - Investment Logic: The domestic zinc concentrate market is short of supply, and some smelters may reduce production in November. The consumption is expected to weaken, but the export window is open, which can relieve the supply - surplus situation [90]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Hold profitable long positions and pay attention to export volume and new smelter production; Arbitrage: Consider buying SHFE and selling LME in advance according to export conditions; Options: Wait and see [90]. Lead - Investment Logic: Some lead - storage enterprises have reduced production due to high lead prices and high downstream inventory. The supply of recycled lead may increase, and the lead price may decline [94]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wait and see, and consider shorting if the production of recycled lead increases; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Wait and see [94]. Nickel - Investment Logic: The supply and demand of nickel are loose, but there is cost support. The nickel price will maintain a range - bound operation [98]. - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Wide - range shock; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Options: Sell the 2512 - contract strangle combination [99]. Stainless Steel - Investment Logic: The supply and demand of stainless steel are weak, and it is difficult to obtain production profits. The social inventory has increased slightly [101]. - No trading strategy content provided specifically for the logic above, but based on the general format, it should be summarized if available.
银河期货每日早盘观察-20251031
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-31 02:04