Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After a continuous rise, the recent hot sectors in the market have been rotating rapidly, with technology remaining the main market trend. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market sentiment. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is mainly affected by fundamentals, the implementation time of the new fund fee regulations, and institutional allocation power. The bond market is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. - In the precious metals market, the Fed's loose monetary policy is expected to be implemented in a cycle. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips [8]. - For most metals in the non - ferrous metals sector, such as copper, aluminum, zinc, and lead, due to factors like supply disturbances and positive market sentiment, prices are expected to be strong or have support after corrections. For nickel, short - term observation is recommended, and for tin, short - term high - level oscillation is expected [11][13][16][17]. - In the black building materials sector, with the implementation of the Fed's loose policy and positive signals from the Sino - US meeting, the steel market demand is expected to recover. For iron ore, there is a risk of a phased decline. Glass is expected to remain weak, and soda ash will continue to oscillate narrowly [31][34][35][36]. - In the energy and chemical sector, rubber is recommended for short - term trading; for crude oil, a low - buying and high - selling strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended; for other products like methanol, urea, etc., different strategies are given based on their supply - demand situations [52][54]. - In the agricultural products sector, for products such as hogs, eggs, and soybeans, different strategies are proposed according to their supply - demand fundamentals and market expectations [77][79][82]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Stock Index - Market News: The US will cancel the 10% so - called fentanyl tariff on Chinese goods, and other trade - related measures will be suspended. The CSRC approves the IPO registration of Moore Thread Intelligence Technology. Five departments will improve duty - free shop policies starting from November 1. Tianji Co., Ltd. has full production and sales of lithium hexafluorophosphate [2]. - Strategy Viewpoint: After a continuous rise, the hot sectors rotate rapidly, with technology as the main trend. The medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - Market News: On October 30, the Chinese and US presidents met. The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged. On Thursday, the prices of main treasury bond futures contracts changed to varying degrees [5]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The central bank's restart of treasury bond trading is short - term positive for the bond market. In the medium term, the bond market in the fourth quarter is affected by multiple factors and is expected to oscillate and recover [7]. Precious Metals - Market News: Gold and silver prices rose. The US - China trade negotiation released overseas risks, and the Fed's attitude towards the balance sheet expansion is positive for precious metals. The selection of the new Fed chairman is in progress [8]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on silver on dips. The reference ranges for Shanghai gold and silver futures are given [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market News: After the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the copper price declined. LME and domestic copper inventories changed, and the spot premium and discount situation also changed [10]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The copper price is expected to have strong support after a correction. The reference ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper are given [11]. Aluminum - Market News: After the Fed's interest rate cut and the Sino - US leaders' meeting, the aluminum price declined and then rebounded. Domestic and overseas inventories changed, and the spot premium and discount situation was stable [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The aluminum price is expected to oscillate strongly. The reference ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum are given [13]. Zinc - Market News: The zinc price declined. Domestic and overseas inventories and the basis changed [14][15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The zinc price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to factors such as supply disturbances and positive market sentiment [16]. Lead - Market News: The lead price declined slightly. Domestic and overseas inventories and the basis changed [17]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The lead price is expected to run strongly in the short term due to factors such as supply - demand changes and positive market sentiment [17]. Nickel - Market News: The nickel price declined. The spot premium and cost of nickel changed, and the price of nickel iron was stable [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term observation is recommended. If the nickel price drops significantly, long positions can be considered. The reference ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given [19]. Tin - Market News: The tin price declined. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was mixed [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The tin price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. It is recommended to observe [20]. Lithium Carbonate - Market News: The price of lithium carbonate rose. The production and inventory of lithium carbonate changed [21]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The fundamentals of lithium carbonate are expected to improve, but caution is needed. The reference range for the futures contract is given [22]. Alumina - Market News: The alumina price declined. The basis, overseas price, and inventory changed [24]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe in the short term. The reference range for the futures contract is given, and factors such as supply - side policies need to be focused on [25]. Stainless Steel - Market News: The stainless steel price declined. The spot price, raw material price, and inventory changed [26]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe due to the unresolved supply - demand contradiction and limited upward momentum [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market News: The price of cast aluminum alloy declined. The position, trading volume, and inventory changed [27]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is strong, and the supply is tight, providing support for the price [29]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market News: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil declined. The registered warehouse receipts, positions, and spot prices changed [31]. - Strategy Viewpoint: With the implementation of the Fed's loose policy and positive signals from the Sino - US meeting, the steel market demand is expected to recover [31]. Iron Ore - Market News: The iron ore price declined slightly. The position and basis changed [32]. - Strategy Viewpoint: There is a risk of a phased decline in the iron ore price due to factors such as supply - demand changes and weak fundamentals [34]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market News: The glass price declined significantly, and the soda ash price declined slightly. The inventory and position of glass and soda ash changed [35][36]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Glass is expected to remain weak, and soda ash will continue to oscillate narrowly [35][36]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market News: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon changed slightly. The spot price and basis changed [37]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The black sector is not pessimistic in the long - term. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are expected to follow the black sector's trend [39][40]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market News: The prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon declined slightly. The inventory and position changed [41][44]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate with market sentiment, and the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon is expected to improve [42][45]. Energy and Chemical Rubber - Market News: The rubber price declined. The opening rate of tire enterprises, inventory, and spot price changed [47][49][51]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Short - term trading is recommended, and a hedging strategy is proposed [52]. Crude Oil - Market News: The crude oil price declined slightly, and the prices of related refined oil products changed. US EIA data showed changes in inventory [53]. - Strategy Viewpoint: A low - buying and high - selling strategy is maintained, and short - term observation is recommended [54]. Methanol - Market News: The methanol price declined. The port price, inventory, and basis changed [55]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe due to the high inventory and weak demand [55]. Urea - Market News: The urea price declined slightly. The spot price and basis changed [56]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to go long on dips due to the relatively loose supply - demand pattern [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market News: The prices of pure benzene and styrene declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [58]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The styrene price may stop falling in the short term due to factors such as inventory reduction [59]. PVC - Market News: The PVC price declined. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory changed [60]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term due to the strong supply and weak demand [63]. Ethylene Glycol - Market News: The ethylene glycol price declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to short on rallies due to the expected inventory accumulation [65]. PTA - Market News: The PTA price declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [66]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe due to the short - term inventory accumulation and weak processing fee [67]. p - Xylene - Market News: The p - xylene price declined. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [68]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to observe due to the high load and lack of driving force [69]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market News: The PE price declined. The upstream opening rate, inventory, and downstream opening rate changed [70]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PE price is expected to oscillate at a low level due to factors such as high inventory and policy influence [71]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market News: The PP price declined. The upstream opening rate, inventory, and downstream opening rate changed [72]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The PP price is under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand imbalance and high inventory [74]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Market News: The hog price fluctuated. The selling enthusiasm of farmers and the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream changed [76]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The hog price may decline in the medium term, and short - term rebound is possible. A hedging strategy is proposed [77]. Eggs - Market News: The egg price was mostly stable. The supply and market trading situation were normal [78]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The spot price may rebound slightly, and the futures price is expected to bottom out. It is recommended to observe [79]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Market News: The CBOT soybean price rose. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventory, and the expected import situation changed [80][81]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to short on rallies due to the high domestic inventory and loose global supply [82]. Oils and Fats - Market News: The palm oil export and production data in Malaysia changed. The domestic oil price oscillated, and the spot basis was stable [83]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The palm oil price is expected to oscillate weakly before the export situation improves [84]. Sugar - Market News: The sugar price declined slightly. The spot price was stable, and the import policy changed [85][86]. - Strategy Viewpoint: It is recommended to short after the rebound weakens due to factors such as supply - demand and import profit [87]. Cotton - Market News: The cotton price fluctuated slightly. The spot price rose, and the Sino - US trade negotiation had positive results [88]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The cotton price may have limited upward space in the short term due to weak fundamentals [89].
文字早评2025/10/31：宏观金融类-20251031
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-10-31 02:04