宁证期货今日早评-20251031

Key Points of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Gold: After the China-US summit, the risk aversion sentiment may continue to cool down. Although the US government is still shut down, the buying power of gold remains strong. Gold may fluctuate at a high level in the medium term, and investors should adopt a range - trading mindset. Pay attention to the impact of the US dollar index on gold [1]. - Crude Oil: There is a mix of long - term supply surplus pressure and short - term positive factors. Short - term positive factors include last week's favorable EIA inventory data, US sanctions on two major Russian oil companies, and the trade relaxation agreement reached after the China - US meeting in Busan, South Korea. Wait for the results of the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday and adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. - Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds: The counter - cyclical policy continues to be intensified, and the economic recovery has strong resilience, which is a long - term negative factor for the bond market. Open - market treasury bond trading, liquidity, the stock - bond seesaw effect make bond market operations more difficult. Adopt a slightly bullish trading mindset in the medium term [4]. - Silver: Positive information from the China - US talks and better - than - expected economic recovery in the eurozone increase risk appetite and boost silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate with a bullish bias [4]. - PTA: The polyester inventory is low, providing solid support on the demand side. However, with new plants starting trial operations, the expectation of weakening supply - demand is strong, and the weakening of crude oil prices weakens the cost support. The PTA market may decline slightly in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [5]. - Rubber: China's rubber inventory continues to decline, and warehouse receipts are decreasing, which provides medium - term support. With the reduction of macro - pressure, the market is expected to move upward. Adopt a bullish trading mindset at low levels [5]. - Live Pigs: The national live pig price mainly declined yesterday. After the price continued to rise, the terminal acceptance is poor, and the entry of second - fattening pigs decreased significantly. The price may fluctuate weakly in the near future. However, the slaughter pressure of farmers at the end of the month is not large, and the demand is slowly improving, providing short - term support. It is recommended to wait and see, and farmers can hedge according to the slaughter rhythm [6]. - Palm Oil: As the end - of - month export and production data of Malaysian palm oil are about to be released, the market pays high attention. The fundamentals of palm oil are expected to improve in November. Palm oil will have bottom support and fluctuate in the short term [7]. - Rapeseed Meal: The rigid shortage of supply and the low - inventory status of coastal oil mills reduce the risk of rapeseed meal price decline. With the stagnation of domestic rapeseed crushing and low oil mill operating rates, it is recommended to buy at low levels. Pay attention to changes in China - Canada trade policies [7]. - Methanol: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is relatively stable. The methanol port inventory fluctuates slightly. The methanol market in Jiangsu shows inventory reduction, and the inland market price declines. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2225. It is recommended to wait and see [8]. - Soda Ash: The float glass industry has stable operation and decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with supply remaining at a high level. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [9]. - Plastic: On the supply side, the number of temporary shutdowns of LLDPE plants increases, production proportion decreases, and production enterprise inventory declines. On the demand side, although the peak season is not prosperous, downstream factory operations increase, and they maintain just - in - time replenishment. The cost support weakens. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate slightly with a bullish bias in the short term, with support at 6930. It is recommended to wait and see or buy on dips [10]. 3. Summary by Product Category Metals - Gold: After the China - US summit, risk aversion cools, but gold buying power is strong. Medium - term high - level fluctuation [1]. - Silver: Positive China - US talks and better - than - expected eurozone economic recovery boost silver. Bullish bias [4]. Energy - Crude Oil: Long - term supply surplus and short - term positive factors coexist. Wait for OPEC+ meeting results [2]. Bonds - Medium and Long - term Treasury Bonds: Counter - cyclical policy intensifies, and economic resilience is strong. Bond market operation is difficult, with a slightly bullish bias in the medium term [4]. Chemicals - PTA: Polyester inventory is low, but new plants and weakening crude oil prices may lead to a short - term decline [5]. - Methanol: High production, stable demand, and slightly fluctuating inventory. Short - term weak fluctuation [8]. - Soda Ash: Stable float glass operation and decreasing inventory. Soda ash market is stable, with short - term fluctuation [9]. - Plastic: Supply reduction and demand increase, with weakening cost support. Slightly bullish short - term fluctuation [10]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: Price decline and short - term support due to end - of - month factors [6]. - Palm Oil: End - of - month data attention and improving fundamentals in November. Short - term bottom - supported fluctuation [7]. - Rapeseed Meal: Supply shortage and low inventory. Recommended to buy at low levels [7]. - Rubber: Declining inventory and reduced macro - pressure. Bullish at low levels [5].